Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
The non sequitur answer you give when you have no answer.
Try to stay on point, Rob. What gain is to be had by spending your time on political sites, Twitter, etc?
The investing advice field has become completely corrupt in the Buy-and-Hold Era, Anonymous. Lots of people know about Shiller’s research findings. Lots of people know that he was awarded the Nobel prize for this “revolutionary” (his word) advance. And lots of people in this field want to do honest work and to thereby help other people (they are just people after all — people in every field of human endeavor possess a natural desire to do honest work and to thereby help other people).
But they feel that their careers will be destroyed if they dare to “cross” the Buy-and-Holders by reporting honestly on the implications of the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research. Wade Pfau is the obvious and most clearly demonstrated example of the phenomenon. But there are of course many, many others. Rob Arnott told me about academic researchers he knows who tried to do honest research and who were taken aside and warned that their careers would be destroyed if they did so. Jack Bogle himself includes lots of honest stuff in his speeches all the time and then undermines his own message by suggesting in the last paragraph that Buy-and-Hold is just fine.
The Buy-and-Hold Crisis does not affect only people who work in the investing field. It affects all of us. It is a political issue. We have millions of people unemployed today because of the crisis. We have millions on the way to suffering failed retirements. We have people on both the left and the right losing confidence in our political process. This is serious stuff. We are going to have to find some way to get honest investing advice out to people. We are going to need to get prison sentences announced for you Goons and then to reward those doing honest and accurate work in this field with various economic benefits.
People respond to incentives. We need to provide positive incentives to people of integrity who want to work in this field and call the Buy-and-Holders out on their b.s. We can’t find people in the investing field to do it because people trying to make a living in this field are too compromised. Wade has two small children to support. That’s why he felt that he could not stand up to Bogle and his various Internet Goon Squads. We are going to need to create communities of people outside the investing realm who are willing to help out those of us trying to expose the corruption and to open up the possibility of people of integrity obtaining work in the investing field.
I haven’t finalized my plans in this area. I am still outlining an agenda. My guess is that I will get to work on this new phase early next year. I have been thinking more and more about it over the past few months.
I am debating not even going to FinCon16 in September because I may want to devote my time and energies in this new direction. I have not made a decision but I expect to do so within the next few weeks. Regardless of which way I go with the FinCon decision, I more and more expect to be moving toward directing more of my efforts at political sites and at social media sites.
Once we generate pressure from outside the investing realm for honest work to be permitted in the investing realm, I believe that we will see things begin to happen quickly in the investing field. There’s is already a great deal of pent-up desire both to provide honest investing advice and to hear honest investing advice. We have been seeing that going back to May of 2002. We need help from outside the investing field to help deal with the pervasive corruption within the field. I have tentatively concluded that that’s where I should be placing most of my efforts in days to come.
Those are my scattered and tentative thoughts re this matter at this time, in any event.
I hope that helps a bit.
Hang in there, my old friend.
Rob
Are you saying Bogle is the leader of the goons and that the goons follow orders given by Bogle? Are you the main target of those orders?
Did Wade tell you that he could not stand up to Bogle and the goons?
Are you saying Bogle is the leader of the goons and that the goons follow orders given by Bogle? Are you the main target of those orders?
Did Wade tell you that he could not stand up to Bogle and the goons?
I don’t think that Bogle and his various Goon Squads communicate on a daily basis.
But I know for certain that Bogle knows about the threats of physical violence and the thousands of acts of defamation and the threat to get Wade Pfau fired from his job if he continued to do honest work in his field. I know because I sent three e-mails to Bogle telling him what was going on and asking for his help. I also know that there were a number of others at the Bogleheads Forum who contacted Bogle asking for help with the Lindauer Matter because they told me so.
And I know that Bogle knew about Lindauer’s behavior long before I even came on the scene. I ran into a fellow who had been banned from the Boglehead’s Forum before I posted there because he had posted honestly. He said that Lindauer made threats of physical violence to intimidate him into leaving the board. Bogle has said publicly that he visits the Bogleheads Forum roughly once a week. So Bogle has known about what goes on there for a long time. It would be impossible for him not to know when there were numerous threads discussing these matters every day when I was there. And of course Bogle knew about how Lindauer reacted when I announced that I would be attending one of the annual meetings that Bogle attends.
Wade Pfau was more concerned about Bogle than he was about Linduaer. When Pfau posted about the peer-reviewed research that he and I co-authored (research that I believe can fairly be characterized as the most important research done in this field in the past 35 years), Lindauer defamed him by saying that he had engaged in unethical research practices. Wade showed a lot of backbone in standing up for himself. He made clear that he would not tolerate such behavior from the king of internet goons. But when Bogle failed to act to rein in Lindauer, Wade got scared and backed down. I cannot think of any other explanation for his change in behavior.
It may be that there were threats made behind the scenes that played a role. I obviously cannot speak to what I did not see with my own eyes. But even if there were additional threats made in private by you Goons, I believe that it was Bogle’s implicit endorsement of your criminal behavior that most frightened Wade. It wouldn’t make sense for him to be so afraid of a group of internet Goons that he would jeopardize his career and risk going to prison just because of what you might try to do.
Wade told me that his fear was that his employer would believe your lies. If Wade had confidence that Bogle would jump in and take his side against you, he would not have been afraid. It was because he saw that Bogle did nothing when he saw Lindauer’s threatening and abusive behavior that Wade believed that you Goons really had the power to destroy his career (and Wade of course had financial responsibility for two small children — so these were threats that hit him at a point of human vulnerability).
There is much evidence of Bogle’s association with Mel Lindauer. Bogle permitted his name to be used on a blurb for Lindauer’s book. It’s hard not to believe that Bogle did not play some role in getting Lindauer his column at Forbes. Bogle permits his name to be used in the name of the board that Lindauer claims to “lead.” I have seen photos from the annual meetings in which Lindauer and Bogle can be seen close enough to each other to appear in the same photograph. The site administrator refused for a long time to violate the site’s rules and ban me solely for enraging Lindauer with my honest posting on the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research in this field despite Lindauer’s many requests that he do so; it’s hard not to believe that Bogle did not play a role in “persuading” the site administrator to commit this criminal act.
I cannot prove that with direct evidence but I feel comfortable saying that any reasonable person would conclude that Bogle must have played at least some role. At the very bare minimum his failure to speak up about the insanely abusive behavior of Lindauer’s Goon squad sent a very clear message to the site administrator (and quite possibly to the legal department of Morningstar as well). The behavior went on for a long, long time. MANY long-time community members spoke out against it in very clear terms and a good number did so on numerous occasions.
Bogle knew about Lindauer. I doubt very much that he knew every detail. I don’t believe that. But I am 100 percent certain that he knew far more than what he needed to know to know that he had a responsibility to take action and that he failed to take action. That’s fraud, Anonyous. Someone who keeps quiet about a massive act of financial fraud is complicit in the cover-up of it. And this is the biggest act of financial fraud in the history of the United States, one that is in the process of destroying millions of middle-class lives and indeed one that has put the continued survival of our economic system and perhaps even of our political system at risk.
Bogle knew. We will find out at the trial, when witnesses speak under oath, precisely how much he knew. That is not entirely clear today. But anyone who participated in real time or who has reviewed the Post Archives (I have copies of all essential threads) knows that Bogle betrayed himself, his family, his profession and his country in his failure to take action re Mel Lindauer, John Greaney and the members of their Goon Squads. I naturally wish that it were not so. But we know today that that much is so beyond any reasonable doubt whatsoever.
The good news is that it will all come out in the trials that will be held following the next price crash and at that time we all will all be free to make use of what we have learned from the past 35 years of peer-reviewed research to make our lives and the lives of all of those of us living at this magic time in the history of investing research better than we ever believed they could be before. Bogle got us started down this wonderful journey of putting together the first true research-backed investing strategy. Let’s not forget the great good that this wonderful man has done while pointing out his unfortunate relationship with the sorts of individuals who have posted in “defense’ of Mel Lindauer, which of course also cannot be denied.
My sincere take.
Rob
What if Bogke never read your emails. I get over 300 emails a day and don’t get time to read them all. I skip the emails that come from people I don’t know. I am guessing a guy like Bogle gets even more emails and has to pick and choose what to read and respond to.
I believe that he read the e-mails. One of the e-mails was invited. He had started a new blog or something and he asked for input and I sent an e-mail giving input. Are you saying that he invites comment on a question and then does not read the responses? That’s really pushing it.
And Bogle himself said that he visited the Bogleheads Forum once per week. There were some days during the time-period in which he said that where there were three or four threads PER DAY dealing with the topics at issue here. Are you saying that he didn’t notice any of them when he visited the board? That’s very, very hard to believe. It we were talking about some random thread, yes, it would be entirely possible that he missed it. But this was a raging controversy for 18 months. There was relentless, high-spirited discussion.
The entire freakin’ board was MOVED because of this. The board used to be at Morningstar. Morningstar refused to ban me. So Lindauer asked that everyone move to a different site where he could control who was banned. Are you saying that Bogle moved to a different site and never noticed that the board had been moved? That’s 100 percent impossible to believe, Anonymous. He noticed that the board had been moved. So he knew there were things going on.
There were numerous questions about valuations that came up that year at the annual meeting. Bogle is not a moron. He knew why those questions were being asked. He might not have known all the details. I don’t believe that he did. But I am 100 percent certain that he had the general picture of what was going on. He knew that there was a guy who was banned who was raising questions about how Shiller’s research reflects on the Buy-and-Hold dogmas and that Mel Lindauer and his Goons were engaging in insanely abusive acts to get this guy removed so that people visiting the board would not hear these challenges. Bogle knew that much and to know that much and not do anything about it is fraud.
We will find out all the details at the trial. We know what we need to know to know that there will be a trial following the next price crash.
Say that none of this had happened. None of it. There STILL would be an issue. Shiller showed in peer-reviewed research published in 1981 that there is precisely zero chance that Buy-and-Hold could ever work for a single investor either in this solar system or in any other solar system located far, far away. Yet Bogle made no changes in Buy-and-Hold as a result. Huh? Is it not arguable that that itself was financial fraud even without all the rest?
I believe that Bogle was suffering from cognitive dissonance in 1981. I think he is a good man and a smart man. So I personally would not call him guilty of financial fraud in 1981. Cognitive dissonance is a real thing. Bogle truly believes in Buy-and-Hold. Fama is a legitimate researcher, one who deserved the Nobel prize he was awarded. So I think that what happened in 1981 was okay. But I am pretty darn sure that lots of people are going to say different following the next price crash, when they have lost most of their retirement money and have no means to get it back other than to bring lawsuits against the people who promoted Buy-and-Hold in defiance of the peer-reviewed research for 35 years.
We are in a sticky situation, Anonymous. The Buy-and-Holders are good people. They messed up. It happens. Unfortunately, in this particular case the mess-up ruined millions of lives, it caused vast amounts of human misery. We are all going to have to pull together to put our economic and political system back together again. That’s the bottom line. That’s what matters.
I am going to do what I can do to help every single person end up in the best possible place in which he or she can land given the circumstances that apply. That’s my job, as I see it.
I cannot say that Bogle didn’t read the e-mails. I believe he read them. I can say that it is theoretically possible but the longest of long shots that he did not read the e-mails. But even in that case he knew about Mel Lindauer from long before I even came on the scene. So we still end up in the same place, with Bogle failing to speak up about a very serious matter and thereby causing the biggest economic crisis in U.S. history. And even if none of that were so, you have the 35 years of peer-reviewed research and the Nobel prize that was awarded to Shiller. If you are going to say that Bogle never heard of Robert Shiller and never realized that he had a responsibility to reform Buy-and-Hold to reflect this “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) research, you might as well get about the business of searching for Nicole Simpson’s real killer while you are at it. I mean, come on.
We will find out at the trial precisely what Bogle knew and when he knew it. Everyone who has been paying even a tiny bit of attention knows that he knew more than enough to know that there was a lot of funny business going on and that he had a responsibility to take action and that he failed to do so and that millions of lives have been destroyed as a result.
I am going to do everything in my power to help my good friend Jack out of a jam that he has gotten himself into. Doing “everything” does not include committing felonies myself. To expect that of me is flat-out insane stuff, stuff that only a feverish Goon brain could consider even the most remote possibility.
I will do everything I can to help out all of my Buy-and-Hold friends and all of my Goon friends. No more. And no less.
I have no other even halfway reasonable options available to me.
My best wishes.
Rob
“I haven’t finalized my plans in this area. I am still outlining an agenda. My guess is that I will get to work on this new phase early next year.”
What needs to be planned? The wildest political environment since the internet was invented is happening right now. If you’re not posting at political sites now, you never will.
You are entitled to your opinion, Anonymous. I don’t share that opinion. I am going to proceed in the manner that feels right to me.
I don’t think what you are saying is crazy. You are making a legitimate point. The political environment is indeed wild today and so maybe the guiding thought should be to strike when the iron is hot. Perhaps I am making a mistake by waiting a bit. My gut tells me that this is not quite the right time. I have learned over the years to trust my gut re such matters. So it is my intent to hold off for a bit. But I acknowledge that it is possible that I am making a mistake by doing that.
I’ll offer one possible explanation for why it might be better to wait a bit.
Yes, the political environment is wild today, as you say. Is that a good thing? Is that what we want?
I don’t want that. There is a sense in which I do want it. I want to see change. Wildness is conducive to change. We are as a people now in the process of shaking things up. So perhaps I have a great opportunity that has appeared before me that I should be taking advantage of before it passes. Perhaps there are people who would listen to what I have to say today who will not listen tomorrow and I am making a terrible mistake by holding back for a bit. I can see how that might be so.
But there’s another side to the story. The people who are voting for Trump are angry today. Fair statement, no? And the people who are voting for Clinton are perhaps not quite angry but they are something on the negative side too. Perhaps they are disgusted. Perhaps they are dismissive. Perhaps they are just shocked. They are something on the negative side, in my assessment. They are not today fully open to the possibility that they have something to learn from the Trump people. They do not feel warm and friendly toward the Trump people. At least that much is fair to say.
That’s a problem, in my view. I understand that it is probably insanely idealistic to think that there is ever going to be a day when there will be zero antagonism between the Trump people and the Clinton people. But the answer is not to engage in more yelling. I intend to spend more time in future days at political sites because the investing field has in the Buy-and-Hold Era become 100 percent corrupt. People feel (with good reason) that it is not possible to make a living in this field unless you give up your personal integrity to make nice with the Buy-and-Holders. So it makes sense for me to spend more time at political sites where people may feel more free to talk openly about the Wall Street Corruption that is poisoning our country today. But I am not a tiny bit interested in generating more hate. If what you are suggesting by saying that the political environment today is more “wild” than it has been at most other times is that there is an openness to hate today that was not present before, please count me out, you know?
I am one of many people who believe that the best moment in Sunday’s debate was when both Clinton and Trump were asked to say one positive thing about the other and both offered sincere and kind comments re his or her “opponent.” That’s the United States I love. That’s what works. That’s the answer. That’s where I am taking this thing between the Valuation-Informed Indexers and the Buy-and-Holders.
Love is the answer, Anonymous. So, yes, I want to work at sites where it is possible to say openly “Jack Bogle is a con man who has more responsibility than anyone else alive for bringing on the biggest economic crisis in U.S. history.” That must be said because that’s the obvious truth here and we need to make everyone aware of the obvious truths if we are going to solve our biggest problems. But that by itself is not hateful. Saying “Jack Bogle is a con man” is an act of love so long as the intent behind the statement is to bring Bogle to a better place and thereby to secure for him in the minds of millions a reputation as a great man, which is what he is (the full truth is that he is BOTH a con man and a hero to the middle-class).
Yes, we need a political moment in which people are desperate enough about the pain that the Wall Street Con Men have brought on to open themselves to some new, peer-reviewed findings about how stock investing works in the real world. But we are going to waste that opportunity if we give in to human weaknesses that tempt us to blame ONLY the Wall Street Con Men for our troubles. Bogle couldn’t have gotten away with what he got away with if the newspapers had called him out on his b.s. and if the academic researchers had called him out on his b.s. and if the freakin’ millions of middle-class investors themselves had called him out on his b.s. We are ALL complicit in this huge act of financial fraud, every last one of us, including yours truly. That reality has to be part of the story that is told.
I am not convinced that the political environment that exists today is the political environment in which that FULLY true message can at last be heard. My sense is that we are inching up to a better place, that we are being put through some awful smelling stuff as part of a process that will over time come to yield some amazing fruit for our entire nation. But that we are not quite there yet.
I am not God. I could be wrong. I am not sure. But my sense is that the opportunity here is not quite ripe. So my inclination is to hold back a bit longer and watch to see how things develop. I want to help out at sites that permit people to give voice to important truths that for too long have been censored or self-censored. But one of the truths that needs to be voiced is that love is the answer, that for all of their flaws the Wall Street Con Men want to do good and long to do good and are highly capable of doing good. I need to be able to tell BOTH sides of the story to get this job done right. And I am not interested in achieving half-way successes. We need full successes to get things back on the right track. I need to be able to speak HONESTLY. That means saying that “Jack Bogle is hero to the middle class” as much as it means saying “Jack Bogle is a con man who has participated at sites that permit posting by the sorts of individuals who associate with Mel Linduaer and John Greaney.”
That’s where I am coming from. It would be a mistake to wait for the perfect moment because we don’t get perfection in this fallen world. But I am not sure that the time is quite ripe for what I am trying to do and for what I must do if all of our efforts of the first 14 years of discussions are to bear good fruit for all of us. I am in wait-and-see mode. I am watching and pondering and planning and hoping and praying. Posting (on political sites) comes later.
Those are my sincere thoughts re these terribly important matters, in any event.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, my good friend.
I hope that helps a tiny bit.
Rob