Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“I sometimes ask myself: “If you knew how things were going to play out, would you have put forward that famous post from the morning of May 13, 2002?” Given the positive stuff we have seen over the past 16 years, the answer is obviously “yes, a thousand times yes!” ”
There is the problem, Rob. You have convinced yourself that there is positive stuff, but it just isn’t true. In any situation, you need to step back and try to pull away from your own biases and take an objective view. Your situation is not unique. We see that people have passions for their businesses and keep dumping money into it, hoping that someday it will work out, yet it doesn’t. We see people move to California in hopes of making it big as an actor/actress thinking that they have what it takes, yet they never make it. Or take the countless kids that think they will be a big NFL/NBA or MLB player and spend years chasing the dream, yet it doesn’t come through. At some point, you have to sit back and look at all the time you have invested and use that as an objective barometer to know that your future results are likely to lead to the same disappointments.
I am sure you think your situation is different. Those other people also think the same thing. We can look at others and see the obvious and know that things are not going to change for them, yet somehow we all think we are different and that it will all work for us even though it didn’t work for others.
Sure, you can go ask a few people if they think you are correct and that will also tell you to keep on pursuing your dream. The only problem is that they are just telling you what you want to hear. That is why it is best just to look at the black and white results, which in this case is dollars and cents. As you have admitted, this point of measure has not worked out for you.
You can decide to call me a goon or come up with more of your canned sayings to just write these comments off just like the rest. The fact is that it doesn’t really impact the rest of us at all. The only one hurt will be you if you decide to ignore this post just like you have done with the rest.
People have been trying to help you for years. Unfortunately, you don’t see it as help. If you are not willing to take it, no one can make you. It is all your choice, just like the rest of us make our own choices.
I hope at some point you decide to really help yourself and your family.
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all good things, in any event.
Rob
Anonymous says
This person has made a reasonable point. Don’t you agree?
Rob says
I do not.
There were people who in the days before the Madoff fund was exposed as a scam warned the investors in the fund that that is what it was. The numbers just didn’t add up, Most of the investors in the fund ignored those warnings. Their usual answer was: “I’ve made lots of money with this fund, it’s only the dollars and cents that matter.”
It’s not even a tiny bit uncommon for a scam to produce lots of pretend dollar bills for a time for the people who fall for it. The test is what happens in the long run. Shiller showed that stock market prices ALWAYS return to fair-value levels in the long run. There has never in the history of the market been a single exception. I think he is right. I think that the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research in this field is legitimate research. I don’t believe that it is only dollars and cents that matter. I believe that honesty matters. I believe that research matters. I believe that common sense matters.
I wish you all good things, Anonymous. But I would not feel even a tiny bit comfortable saying that John Greaney included a valuations adjustment in the retirement study posted at his web site. Nor would I feel a tiny bit comfortable denying that there is now 37 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. I would be truly grateful if you would try to find someone else.
Scam-Fighting Rob