Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
“We all have crosses that we have to carry in this life.”
“Have” to carry? Of course not. You have chosen your path and now you reject getting the help you need.
I have never had a choice. Do I have the choice to flap my arms in the air and fly to the moon? I have a better chance of doing that than I do of posting dishonestly re the numbers that my fellow community members are using to plan their retirements. It’s not in me. Good, bad or indifferent, that’s the way it is.
I haven’t asked for your help. I believe that there will be millions helping me in the days following the next price crash. If there are, then so bet it. If there are not, then again so be it. I will accept what comes. Part of that is accepting what I am. And I am not a person who can post dishonestly re the numbers that his fellow community members are using to plan their retirements. That one is a non-starter. It’s not something that I have ever considered even for two seconds. It’s not something that I ever will consider for even two seconds.
There are things that I can do. But that is not one of those things. Good, bad or indifferent, that’s my fate. I don’t complain about it. I don’t apologize for it. I am proud of it. There are things that other people are good at that I am not good at. That’s one that I am good at. I am grateful that I am not able to post dishonestly re the numbers that my fellow community members are using to plan their retirements. We wouldn’t all have the amazing peer-reviewed research that I co-authored with Wade Pfau if I had been able to post dishonestly re the numbers that my fellow community members are using to plan their retirements. That’s my greatest achievement in this life. That’s the greatest contribution that I have made to this world. And I never would have posted the things that caused Wade to contact me had I been able to give in to the intimidation tactics and post dishonestly.
The only help that I am seeking is help getting every investing discussion board and blog on the internet opened to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. If you are ever able to offer help in that regard, I’m here. If you are not, I hope that I will obtain that help elsewhere. If I don’t, I suppose that I will have to live with not obtaining the help that I hope to obtain. It is my understanding that worse things have happened from time to time in this mixed-up worlds of ours. Whachagonnado?
I haven’t chosen my path — I AM my path. Please feel free to quote me all over the internet. I would feel that you were doing a favor by doing so. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
My best and warmest wishes to you, dear friend.
Born-to-Follow-This-Path Rob
laugh says
This is nonsensical gibberish. What does it mean to be ‘able to post dishonestly’?
Rob says
I put my first post to the Motley Fool’s Retire Early board in May 1999. I knew at the time that the safe withdrawal rate study posted at John Greaney’s web site lacked an adjustment for the valuation level that applied on the day the retirement began. I said nothing about it for three years, That was dishonest.
I rationalized the dishonesty. Not too many years earlier, Peter Lynch had been saying that the safe withdrawal rate was 7 percent. Greaney’s study, which was based on the Trinity study (which was published in a peer-reviewed journal) said that it was 4 percent. At the top of the bubble, the safe withdrawal rate was 1.6 percent. Greaney’s number was obviously a lot closer to reality than the Peter Lynch number. So I told myself that he was doing good (which was true) and that it was not necessary for me to stick my neck out (he was known to be an abusive poster) and correct the error. That was wrong. That was dishonest. People using a number to plan their retirement need to know the accurate number.
It was the rationalization that permitted me to post dishonestly. It became impossible for me to continue to do so when Greaney launched his smear campaign of Wanderer, who had become our best poster at the time. Wanderer’s “crime” was that he posted honestly about how investing in real estate had helped him to retire early. Greaney wanted people only to say good things about stock investing. He had driven other top-notch posters off the board with his abusive posting and I felt that my rationalization no longer held water. I was obligated to post honesty.
The truth is that I was obligated to post honestly all along.
Something similar is going on with many people today. Everyone gets it that honest posting should be permitted at every board and blog, But people don’t want the abusive posting aimed at them. So they rationalize. They tell themselves that the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies have not done so much harm, so why make a fuss? The harm will be evident after the next price crash. Then lots of people will see that it was wrong all along to permit this massive act of financial fraud and we will as a people open every discussion board and blog to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics.
That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
My best wishes to you, Laugh.
Nonsensical Rob
Anonymous says
“That’s my sincere take re these terribly important matters”
You’re not sincere, and these matters are not important. If “opening every board and blog to honest posting” is so goll-durn important, why aren’t you doing anything about it? You haven’t even tried to post anywhere else in years. You’re still talking about 1999 as if it’s a current event. “All talk, no action” is the story of Rob Bennett.
(No, waiting for a crash is not doing something. It’s literally doing nothing.)
Rob says
I’ve done more than anyone else alive, Anonymous. And it’s not a close call.
Doing this work is hard. Human beings are social animals. We want to be liked. It hurts to be rejected by others. And Shiller’s message is a message that most people very, very, very much want to reject. I am telling people who have a $100,000 stock portfolio that they really have $50,000 of lasting value. I am telling people who have a $500,000 stock portfolio that they really have $250,000 of lasting value. I am telling people who have a $1 million portfolio that they really have $500,000 of lasting value. How do you think that makes them feel? And how do you think it makes me feel when they reject me out of fear that what I am saying might really be so?
Knowing the realities of stock investing benefits each and every one of us in the long run. Once we open every site to honest posting on the last 37 years of peer-reviewed research, we will in all likelihood never again experience an economic crisis. It is the huge loss of consumer buying power that we experience with stock crashes that cause economic crises. And it is the ban on honest posting that causes the bull markets that bring on stock crashes. Stock prices are self-regulating so long as all investors have access to honest, research-based reports on how stock investing works. And of course we will dramatically reduce the number of failed retirements once we permit honest posting on safe withdrawal rates. And people will be able to retire many years earlier. And on and on and on.
The advance from Buy-and-Hold to Valuation-Informed Indexing is the biggest advance that we have ever seen in the history of personal finance. So this work is of huge importance. And there is no one alive who has worked it as hard as I have. Have I taken some hard emotional hits that have slowed me down? I have indeed. But I am still kicking. And I will be coming back strong in the days following the next price crash, when I will be working with my Buy-and-Hold friends to get the word out to millions of middle-class investors as to how this stuff really works and to get all the calculators fixed and to get hundreds of exciting new books published and to get hundreds of new blogs and discussion boards formed and on and on and on.
I offer no apologies. I wish that all of the emotional hits just bounced off me. I wish that I were Superman. But i’m not. So all that I can do is all that I can do. I can assure you that I have never done one smidgen less than all that I can do. And I am 100 percent confident that not one reasonable person will in the days following the next price crash look at the materials offered at this site and conclude differently.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
My best and warmest wishes to you, dear Goon friend.
All-Talk, No-Action Rob
Anonymous says
“I’ve done more than anyone else alive, Anonymous. And it’s not a close call.”
That is the most exaggerated statement I have seen in a long time. A teenager working a few hours a week at the local fast food joint has done way more than you.
Rob says
I stand by my statement. I have done more than anyone else alive to get every investing site on the internet opened up to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics. And there is no one else in even a remotely close second place. I’ve got the scars all over my body to prove the point. And I am 100 percent certain that there will not be one reasonable person who disagrees with that assessment in the days following the next price crash. And the things that you Goons say won’t count for much because you will be saying those things from your new homes in prison cells.
It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
My best wishes.
Fast-Food Joint Worker Rob
Anonymous says
You USED to try. Now you’re hiding under the bed, looking for your Big Boy pants. Because you can’t handle rejection. But you’ll be back, as soon as you find a site with nice people who always agree with you.
Good luck with the internet, Rob.
Rob says
The internet has the potential for great good, Anonymous. Please remember that I was a Buy-and-Holder on the morning of May 13, 2002. I obviously am not that today. A lot of the things that I learned that caused me to lose confidence in Buy-and-Hold and to gain confidence in Valuation-Informed Indexing I could not have learned but for the internet. You don’t learn new things by sitting in a room thinking up great thoughts. You need to interact with others. I have interacted with thousands of people that I could not have interacted with but for the internet. I am grateful for those learning experiences. I am grateful for the internet.
You are right, though, that the internet has a dark side. The mob rule stuff is not appealing and that sort of thing takes place more on the internet than it does in other communication mediums. I have seen a lot of the mob rule stuff. I have seen the dark side of the internet up close and personal.
What happens after the crash? It would not surprise me if the mob rule stuff turns in the opposite direction, if people become so angry over the losses that they have suffered that they go after the Buy-and-Holders in a mindless way. I obviously want no part of that. I want people to learn why Buy-and-Hold is flawed. I don’t want people to go from one emotional extreme to another. Maybe I will always be the man on the outside, you know? Maybe if you don’t go emotional, you cannot develop a following on the internet. I hope that’s not so. It’s possible that it is. If it is, there’s nothing that I can do about it. I have to be what I am.
I think that what may happen is that I will team up with Buy-and-Holders after the crash. I obviously don’t agree with Buy-and-Holders on valuations. But I very much relate to their basic approach to investing questions. The Buy-and-Holders were trying to develop a rational, research-based strategy. I think they were sincere about that. I cannot prove it, I cannot see into their minds. But everything that I can see points in that direction. So I think there is a natural kinship between the Buy-and-Holders and me. I think they made a mistake, I think they got caught up in something bigger than them. But I also believe that deep down inside they want to get it right. I believe that, following the crash, they are going to reevaluate their positions and I will probably be someone taking the side of the more open-minded Buy-and-Holders over the side of any mobs attacking them because of losses they have suffered.
If everything was mob rule left, right and center, we wouldn’t have Buy-and-Hold. You say “good luck with the internet.” Someone could have said to Bogle when he was starting out “good luck with a research-based investing approach” or “good luck with a focus on the long-term” or “good luck with persuading people that they don’t need to pick stocks” or “good luck with low fees.” I think that Bogle has been proven right about a lot more things than the numbers of things that he has been proven wrong about. And yet Bogle has been extremely successful in persuading people of the merit of his investment strategy. So it is not always mob rule that prevails.
Mob rule is about emotion. That is part of what humans are. We are emotional creatures. And that does us in sometimes. Mob rule hurts us in the investing realm and in lots of other realms too. But it is a mistake to conclude when mob rule hurts us in some way that all we are is mob rule. Mob rule holds us back from achieving the potential of the internet. But there’s a lot of good on the internet. So mob rule is not the entire story. I believe that it is possible to use the internet to do good. I believe that it is cynical to believe that mob rule is the entire story of the internet.
That’s my take, Anonymous. We are just going to have to wait to see how it plays out to know for sure. I am not capable of playing it any other way, in any event. So all that I can do is to give it my best shot. You are right that I have been hurt by rejection. You are not right to say that I cannot handle rejection. I have handled more of it than anyone else alive. I have done amazing things in the face of a mountain of rejection and still kept getting up and rushing in for more. So I offer no apologies. But, yes, there comes a point where the relentless rejection hurts. That is so. I wish that I were Superman. But I am not.
But I think that there are a lot of good people in this world who will be happy to help out when conditions change. And I think that conditions will change after we all experience a 50 percent price crash. I think that experience is going to change the thinking of millions of people and that people are going to want to find out where their hopes for a decent retirement went. And I believe that the materials at this site will help to provide them some answers. I believe that I will be able to tell them both where the Buy-and-Holders got it wrong and where the Buy-and-Holders got it right. It is my intent to tell a balanced story and I believe that there is going to be a great need for that in the days following the crash.
I see a happy ending to the story. Now the full reality is that I would almost have to see a happy ending or else I couldn’t get up in the morning, you know? I think we humans build narratives that help us cope with the circumstances in which we find ourselves and sometimes those narrative are right on and sometimes not so much. That’s my narrative. I believe that as a society we are very close to making some amazing advances in our understanding of how stock investing works. I have seen some very smart people enjoy the click moment re this stuff and it is very gratifying to see that. I want to see that with millions. And I think we are close to making that happen. So it is my intent to soldier on and wait for that change in attitudes that we need to see to travel together to the other side.
We’ll see, you know? That’s the best that I can offer you. Either it will happen or it will not. I am not a mob rule kind of guy. So I cannot be part of a mob cursing Buy-and-Hold any more than I can be part of a mob praising Buy-and-Hold. That’s just not in me. I am a guy who wants to take the good out of it and make sure that that lives forever while wanting to leave the bad — which can end up ruining the good if not addressed — behind. Time will tell the tale. Mob rule is a real thing on the internet. But it is not the only thing. It is certainly not my thing. I think that I can overcome it. I certainly hope so. But we are just going to have to wait a bit to find out whether I am right re that one or not.
I hope that helps at least a tiny bit, my mob-rule-embracing friend.
Rejection-Damaged Rob
Anonymous says
So you think that after the next economic disaster hits, the internet will become a kinder, gentler place. Wow.
Rob says
In the investing realm, yes.
There’s a saying that “pride comes before a fall.” The discussion board community that now goes by the name “Bogleheads Forum” used to go by the name “Vanguard Diehards.” There was a lot that I related to in that name. I like fighters. That name suggests that the community was a group of people who were willing to fight for what they believed. You Goons fight. I like that about you. I have often wished that some of my Valuation-Informed Indexing friends had a bit more fight in them. There are positive things to be said for being a fighter.
But there are also negative things to be said about being a “diehard.” Diehards are arrogant. Diehards are not willing to admit mistakes. Diehards are not willing to listen carefully to others even when they are making good point and diehards thereby often miss out on wonderful learning experiences.
The Buy-and-Holders have engaged in corrupt acts. It doesn’t follow that they are corrupt through and through. I think that the Buy-and-Holders are good and smart people. They made a mistake. They got caught up in something bigger than them. They got caught in a trap. So what happens when they see the ocean of human misery that we all are going to see appear before us in the event that Shiller is right and we all experience a 50 percent price crash?
They are going to feel anguish when they see that. They are going to wonder if they got something wrong. Their hearts will soften a bit, Their minds will open a bit. They are going to be willing to entertain questions that today they are not willing to entertain. And we only need a little bit of an opening at this point to bring on a flood of powerful insights about how stock investing works in the real world. We are all going to enjoy 37 years of powerful advances in the space of a few months. There is a mountain of pent-up energy that will be put to work helping us all figure out this stuff. We will all be working together. There will be no more nastiness or friction.
You seem to think that because the Buy-and-Holders have closed minds today that they will always have closed minds. I just don’t see it. Their minds are closed today because they cannot bear the thought of looking at all the pain they have caused in the event that Shiller really is right. It’s an unbearable thought and so they shut it down. But there’s not going to be much point in shutting it down once we experience the crash. Then the ocean of human misery will be standing there before us. You can’t deny it when it is being written up in the newspaper each morning. At that point the defenses just get broken down and you are willing to look at what you need to look at to make the pain stop.
I have many times made the comparison between Buy-and-Hold and alcoholism. An alcoholic knows that he is ruining his life. It is foolishness to point out to him how self-destructive his behavior is because he knows that 50 times better than you do. He doesn’t want to face the problems. He doesn’t want to learn how to live without alcohol. That is his driver. There’s no logic to it. The behavior is 100 percent irrational. Alcoholics are diehards.
Now —
There’s a thing called “hitting bottom.” When an alcoholic hits bottom, he often changes. He gives up the rationalizations. He attend AA meetings. An alcoholic who hits bottom and develops a desire to change can become an amazingly productive person, a more productive person than he would have been had he never been an alcoholic in the first place.
If you believe that the Buy-and-Holders got into this with good intentions, as I do, then it makes sense that the most diehard Buy-and-Holders are going to become the most diehard Valuation-Informed Indexers after the crash. They truly believe in research, The last 37 years of research supports Valuation-Informed Indexing. The Buy-and-Holders are going to reconnect with their research-believing inclinations in the days following the next price crash, when the human misery that appears before their eyes forces them to reevaluate their belief that there is no need to practice price discipline when buying stocks.
I believe that investing boards and blogs will become kinder, gentler places in the days following the next price crash. I have some fears that there will be people attacking the Buy-and-Holders in those days. I am going to do everything in my power to stop that sort of thing. I think that would be a tragic mistake. My job is to pull us all together, to help us all see that we all benefit when we learn new things about how stock investing works. I believe that it can be done. And I believe that in many cases it will be my Buy-and-Hold friends helping me make it happen.
I believe that a good number of you Goons will flip eventually. You might be the last group to flip. I could see that being the case. But I could see you flipping eventually. I could see us working together in the days following the crash. Please consider the hill-and-valley pattern that stock prices have been following since the day the market was formed. Prices don’t start heading upward again until every last Buy-and-Holder gives up on Buy-and-Hold. You could never get to a P/E10 of 8 unless every last Buy-and-Holder gave up the fight. Have you considered how crazy it is for an entire nation to value its portfolios at half of their real value? It’s insane. More insane than the prices we see today. If that is going to happen again, as it has happened in the wake of every bull market that we have ever seen in history, it’s going to be because every last Buy-and-Holder has given up the fight. That includes you Goons.
So, yes, I think that our boards will be kinder, gentler places in the days following the crash. They will be sadder places too. People will look at the ruin we have caused and feel terrible about it. But you know what? We will get past that. We will eventually stop focusing on the ruin that we have caused and begin looking forward to all the good we can do by opening every board and blog to honest posting. And then we will return to the original Buy-and-Hold idea of using research to make ourselves better long-term investors. And then we will all be energized for the future.
It all comes down to what you think of the Buy-and-Holders. Do you think that they are good but mistaken re one key part of the investing story? Or do you think that they are corrupt and evil and stupid through and through? I believe that my Buy-and-Hold friends are good but mistaken on one key point. So I think that we can turn it all around in the days following the crash. I obviously wish that it were not necessary for us to live though a crash to get there. I now believe that that is the case. But, yes, I do believe that our boards and blogs will be kinder and gentler and more intelligent and more life-affirming places in those days.
Goon stuff is always going to be popular when prices are where they are today. I don’t believe that it will be so popular after a crash wipes out the retirement hopes of millions of middle-class people.
You may say that I’m a dreamer….
Dream-Believing Rob