Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Forums are made for having a discussion. You never have a discussion. With you, it is only one way. You never listen.
I never say that I believe that the retirement study posted at John Greaney’s web site contains a valuation adjustment. I say what I believe, which is that the study LACKS a valuation adjustment.
I don’t have a problem with others saying that they believe that the study contains a valuation adjustment. My position is that all posters should post honestly.
So long as those of us who believe that the study lacks a valuation adjustment are free to say that, people are on notice as to the problems with the study. If some elect to use the study to plan a retirement regardless, I am fine with that. That one is on them so long as those on both sides were permitted to post honestly. If only Buy-and-Holders are permitted to post honestly, then the discussions are fraudulent.
I do not care to lend my name to a fraudulent enterprise. I have been saying since the morning of May 13, 2002, that I post honestly or I post not.
Whachagonnado?
Rob
Evidence Based Investing says
“I don’t have a problem with others saying that they believe that the study contains a valuation adjustment.”
Have you ever found anyone who claims it does contain a valuation adjustment?
Because I have never seen anyone make such a claim.
Rob says
Greaney claimed thousands of times that he had calculated the safe withdrawal rate.
The Greaney study was discussed daily at the old Retire Early board at the Motley Fool site. Every time it was discussed, it was referred to as a safe withdrawal rate study.
I agree with you that it doesn’t contain a valuation adjustment. That’s the entire problem. I have been saying since the morning of May 13, 2002, that Greaney needs to correct the study before it does more harm to more people.
Rob
Evidence Based Investing says
“I agree with you that it doesn’t contain a valuation adjustment.”
I think everyone agrees with you. Greaney has certainly never claimed that it contains a valuation adjustment.
Rob says
Can you specify the date on which you believe he corrected the study?
Rob
Evidence based investing says
I don’t believe any such thing
Rob says
I see.
Rob
Anonymous says
Nothing needed correcting, as Wade Pfau pointed out.
Rob says
Wade pointed out (after being threatened by you Goons) that Greaney had advanced a comment on the first day of the discussions saying that anyone was cared to was free to take a withdrawal rate of less than 4 percent. Of course they were. That was never in question.
What we need is to permit all community members to post their honest views. When we all feel free to post our honest views, those of us who believe that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research will be saying that. Whenever a Buy-and-Holder says that the safe withdrawal rate is always 4 percent, we will be explaining why that is not so. That way, the percentage of the population following Valuation-Informed Indexing will increase over time and we will never again see the sort of CAPE value that applies today.
We all need to learn about the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research and to incorporate the lessons of that wonderful body of research into our understanding of how stock investing works. The intimidation tactics of the Buy-and-Holders have been holding us back for a long time.. We need to bring the intimidation tactics to a full and complete stop by the close of business today and begin enjoying the benefits of an amazing learning experience.
That is my sincere take re these terribly important matters, in any event.
My best and warmest wishes to you and yours.
Rob
Anonymous says
Wade’s new book is out. Just like previous books, he never talks about you, never mentions Greaney and he does not recommend any timing schemes (including VII). Wade is not alone. None of the experts agree with you. I guess in your world, they are all wrong/corrupt and you stand alone as the only person that is right/ethical. Do I have that right?
Rob says
Every expert both agrees with me and disagrees with me at the same time. I am not aware of one expert who has said that he believes that Greaney included a valuation adjustment in the retirement study posted at his web site. Even Evidence-Based Investing, who is one of the generals in Greaney’s army of internet goons, acknowledged not too long ago that he does not believe that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment. I think it would be fair to say that, when you’ve lost Evidence….
That said, Evidence did not say that he believes that the Greaney study should be immediately corrected and none of the other experts say that either. Wade said it for a time and contacted the authors of the Trinity study seeking a correction. But, when his career was threatened, he pulled back. So we have universal acknowledgment that the study is in error and only one person (me!) regularly and consistently urging correction of the study. That’s the state of play in the year 2021. For the first time in history, we know how stock investing works. But there has been a 40-year cover-up of what we have learned. So we are all very, very, very afraid to talk about what we now know. It would make the Buy-and-Holders look bad for people to learn about this massive cover-up.
The only thing that I could see that would break the logjam is the next price crash. In the event that stocks continue to perform in the future as they always have in the past, we will be seeing millions of failed retirements, hundreds of thousands of business failures, millions of people being thrown out of their jobs and a dramatic increase in political frictions. I believe that this new Buy-and-Hold Crisis will provide the push we need to get a number of people (including Wade) speaking out. It’s all downhill sledding from there. It will be a horrible event to live through. It could bring on the Second Great Depression. But if we make it in one piece to the other side, we will all be able to work together to bury the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold stuff 30 feet in the ground, where it can do no further harm to humans and other living things.
Please make me down as being 100 percent in agreement with Evidence that the Greaney study is in error but 100 percent in disagreement with Evidence that the error does not need to be promptly corrected. I believe that the error should have been corrected within 24 hours of the moment at which Greaney became aware of it (the morning of May 13, 2002).
My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob
Anonymous says
No one agrees with you. Stop the spin. You don’t understand exactly what Evidence is really saying as well.
Rob says
Okay, Anonymous.
I do wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person regardless of what investment strategy you elect to follow, in any event.
My best wishes to you.
Rob
Anonymous says
“That’s the state of play in the year 2021.”
Same state as 2020. And 2019. And 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012…
How many more years do you plan to wait?
Rob says
It’s not for me to say. It’s for the people of the United States to say. Shiller snapped the missing piece of the stock investing puzzle into place in 1981. On the day that we elect as a nation to permit honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field at every discussion board and blog on the internet, we all get to experience an amazing learning experience and to begin living richer and freer lives than we ever imagined possible in the Buy-and-Hold Era.
If it were up to me, we would have done that on the afternoon of May 13, 2002. My guess is that it will happen in the days following the next price crash, when we will all be able to see up close and personal why going pure Get Rich Quck/Buy-and-Hold is not the answer. We’ll see.
Rob
Anonymous says
“It’s for the people of the United States to say.”
For all those years, we’ve all been telling you to get off your lazy butt and find a job.
You’re not listening.
Rob says
You do not speak for the people of the United States, Anonymous. It’s not an eve remotely close call.
Many people have told me that they would like every site to be opened to honest posting so that they can ask questions about what I say and learn from it. Those people are representative of the people of the United States. They do not today feel strongly enough about these matters to wade through all of the garbage that you Goons would place in their path if they were to make an effort to find out the realities. I believe that that may change in the days following the next price crash. I wouldn’t feel comfortable posting dishonestly re the numbers that people use to plan their retirements in any event. So we will have to wait to see how it all plays out.
I naturally wish you the best of luck in all your future life endeavors, in any event.
Rob
Anonymous says
“You do not speak for the people of the United States”
And you do?
I’m not talking about your vague free speech argument. Show me just one real person who supports Rob Bennett’s two decades of lazy buttedness.
You won’t, of course. Because there aren’t any.
Rob says
I run into people all the time who think that we should permit honest posting re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research in this field. I would say that that happens once per month on average. I might get into a conversation in the grocery store and the person will say “What do you do?” and I will tell them the story. And they will react very negatively to hearing about the death threats. They will say something like “that’s terrible” or “people are really messed up,” something like that.
People like that are on my side, not your side, Anonymous. Now there is one sense in which they are on your side. They are not intense in their beliefs. They would like to see honest posting permitted. But it is not life-or-death for them. When we run into those people (the Normals) on the discussion boards, they put up one or two posts indicating that they would like honest posting to be permitted. But that’s it. Then they get quiet. They don’t see it as their job to save the world. So they say it once and then they drop it. I have seen this general scenario play out THOUSANDS of time.
In contrast, you Goons will go to the end of the earth to destroy anyone who dares to “cross” you by posting honestly re these matters. Intensity matters. You have the intensity factor working in your favor by a factor of 500 to 1. I am not even in the ballpark re that one.
What happens after the next price crash? If stocks continue to perform in the future anything at all as they always have in the past, we will be seeing millions of ruined lives. I think that may increase the intensity factor on the side of the Normals. And I think we will be seeing the intensity diminished a bit with you Goons, Your own lives will have been diminished in very serious ways. You might not be quite as willing to go to the ends of the earth to stomp out civil and reasoned discussion at that point. So the intensity disparity will not be so great anymore. I think that that change will be enough for us to get one large site opened to honest posting and then that site will be so successful as a result that knowledge of what the new research shows will just grow and grow and grow, as it would have many years ago if it had not bee for the criminal stuff that was employed by those on the intense side of the table to hold us all back.
Shiller would not have been awarded a Nobel prize if as a people we did not believe that research is a good thing. Yes, we all have a Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold urge residing within us. We are not perfect creatures. But our emotional impulses are not all we are. We have emotional impulses and we have desires to overcome those emotional impulses. Life is a battle between reason and emotion in all sorts of ways every day. Shiller’s amazing contribution was to show us how we can all live better lives by permitting reason a place in our consideration of stock investing issues just as we permit it in many other field of human endeavor already. I believe that we will make that amazing jump in the days following the next price crash and that we will all live better lives from that point forward as a result.
And, yes, I believe that that advance will be entirely consistent with thousands of other advances that humankind has achieved in hundreds of different field going back to the beginning of time. Every advance begins with an acknowledgment that we do not know it all today. That’s a prerequisite. That’s the one that makes the Buy-and-Holders go bonkers. They just cannot bear to accept that there was once a time when they did not know everything there is to know about the subject of stock investing. But of course there was. And moving on to better things is one of the things that human beings do over time. It is built into us. It is part of what we are. Life would get awfully dull if we all pretended like the Buy-and-Holders that we already know everything there is to know and no progress could ever be possible.
People learn new things over time. And people come to live better lives over time. We have the power within us to make the future better than the past. I believe that. And I like that about us.
My sincere take.
Rob
Anonymous says
Obviously you are prepared to blither incoherently forever. However this is my final comment.
A. You could be working a real job.
B. You definitely need the income, to support yourself and your family.
C. You choose not to work.
D. You have made that same choice every day for over twenty years.
There is no one on earth who respects such a person.
Rob says
That’s not been my experience.
Who do we honor we heroes? We don’t say that, to be a hero, you must always think solely of your own self-interest and never give a thought to what will happen to millions of others as the consequence of your failure to do the right thing. Heroes put their self-interest on pause in special moments because they see a job that the community as a whole needs completed that they simply must do. I don’t think that I could ever be much of a hero in a physical sense. If I ran into a burning building, I would probably make things worse than they were before I did so. But I seem to have an ability to stand up for the idea of putting human reason to work in investing analysis. I am very proud that I have been able to make the contribution that I have made.
Wade Pfau concluded after 16 months of study that: “Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing works!” Given that reality, I want to be sure that every investor on the planet has the opportunity to know about it.
If I didn’t do all that I could to help millions of people escape the horrors of the next Buy-and-Hold Crisis, I wouldn’t respect myself. The fact that the Buy-and-Holders themselves no longer believe that their strategy can be defended within the confines of U.S. law tells me that there is something horribly wrong with this “strategy.” And stock investing matters. Many people have a good portion of their life saving invested in stocks. So I sincerely believe that we should be permitting honest discussion of this subject at every discussion board and blog on the internet, without a single exception.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, regardless of what investment strategy you elect to pursue.
Rob
Rob says
Do you think it would have been better if I had just kept quiet about the error in the study?
Rob
Anonymous says
“ That’s not been my experience.”
Just name one person that says it has been okay for you to sit on your butt for the last 20 years versus working a job that brings in an income.
Rob says
Name one person who speaks about things that way except for you Goons. There aren’t any.
What the vast majority of the population believe is that OF COURSE we all should be permitted to post honestly re the last 40 years of peer-reviewed research at every discussion board and blog on the internet. They don’t believe that they should have to put the lives of their loved ones at risk by saying so. So they usually speak up once or twice and then keep it zipped. But you Goons represent a tiny percentage of the population, perhaps 10 percent.
In have said that I expect to receive a $500 million settlement payment after the entire internet has been opened to honest posting. That will show how much value we place on honesty in the investment advice realm. People love, love, love, love, love honest posting. I have had thousands of people praise my work in effusive terms. People just don’t love the nastiness and violence and abusiveness that you Goons bring to the table. Gee, I wonder why.
The work that I am doing has HUGE leverage attached to it. Once one person is permitted to post honestly, we are all free to post honestly. Once we acknowledge as a people that it is a logical impossibility that the safe withdrawal rate could always be the same number, we are free to correct all the other errors that the Buy-and-Holders made, we are free to think clearly about every aspect of the stock investing project.
You are looking at where things stand at a time when we are at one of the most dangerous CAPE levels in U.S. history and saying “Gee, it doesn’t look like there’s a lot of money to be made doing honest work in the investing advice field!” Nothing could be further from the truth. There’s a mountain of money to be made doing honest and accurate work in this field. That’s why you Goons fight me so hard. You can’t stand it that I am the one doing such valuable work and not you. I have invited you to flip. But it is just too painful for you to say those magic words “I” and “Was” and Wrong.”
You count irrational exuberance as if it were real money, as if you could use it to finance a retirement plan. And you count the 19 years of work that I have put into developing the Valuation-Informed Indexing concept as if it did not possess huge financial value. Huh? What the f? If the work that I had done was not worth many hundreds of millions of dollars, why the heck would you fight me so hard? If the work I had done were not worth hundreds of millions, you would not care enough to want to block people from hearing what I have to say. I mean, come on.
Do I wish that we had just followed normal procedures and that there has never been any Ban on Honest Posting? Of course. Obviously. But the fact that honest posting has been banned for these 19 years does not make the work less valuable. It makes it MORE valuable. The Ban on Honest Posting is not going to go away by itself. Each time one of us who believes that Shiller’s Nobel-prize-winning research is legitimate research permits ourselves to be intimidated into silence, it just makes it that much worse for all the others who would like to do honest work. The answer is just to ignore you Goons and to continue doing honest work regardless of what threats you advance.
Say that I were 20 years old and I were trying to figure out what to do with my life and one of the options was to do work that would revolutionize the field of investment advice, that would permit people for the first time in history to plan for their retirement effectively? Would you expect me to pass up that opportunity just because there was a gang of internet goons who really, really did not want people to learn the realities of stock investing? Um — I don’t think so.
Either the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment or it does not. I couldn’t help but notice that Evidence-Based Investing, one of the lead Goons, put up a post a few days back acknowledging that the Greaney study lacks a valuation adjustment. Gee, I wonder what is going on there? Holy moly!
My best wishes to you and yours.
Rob
Anonymous says
You have spent 20 years trying to convince people and have failed miserably. Just think if you had worked a job instead. You probably would have saved enough for an adequate retirement and you would have had enough work history for a solid social security benefit. Instead, you have nothing.
Rob says
I succeeded brilliantly. If I hadn’t been convincing people left and right going back to the first day, you Goons never would have engaged in a single criminal act to stop me. I mean, come on.
Rob