“Every Expert Both Agrees With Me and Disagrees With Me at the Same Time. We Have Universal Acknowledgment That the Greaney Retirement Study Is in Error and Only One Person (Me!) Regularly and Consistently Urging Correction of the Study. That’s the State of Play in the Year 2021.”

Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:

Wade’s new book is out.  Just like previous books, he never talks about you, never mentions Greaney and he does not recommend any timing schemes (including VII).  Wade is not alone.  None of the experts agree with you.  I guess in your world, they are all wrong/corrupt and you stand alone as the only person that is right/ethical.  Do I have that right?

Every expert both agrees with me and disagrees with me at the same time. I am not aware of one expert who has said that he believes that Greaney included a valuation adjustment in the retirement study posted at his web site. Even Evidence-Based Investing, who is one of the generals in Greaney’s army of internet goons, acknowledged not too long ago that he does not believe that the Greaney study contains a valuation adjustment. I think it would be fair to say that, when you’ve lost Evidence….

That said, Evidence did not say that he believes that the Greaney study should be immediately corrected and none of the other experts say that either. Wade said it for a time and contacted the authors of the Trinity study seeking a correction. But, when his career was threatened, he pulled back. So we have universal acknowledgment that the study is in error and only one person (me!) regularly and consistently urging correction of the study. That’s the state of play in the year 2021. For the first time in history, we know how stock investing works. But there has been a 40-year cover-up of what we have learned. So we are all very, very, very afraid to talk about what we now know. It would make the Buy-and-Holders look bad for people to learn about this massive cover-up.

The only thing that I could see that would break the logjam is the next price crash. In the event that stocks continue to perform in the future as they always have in the past, we will be seeing millions of failed retirements, hundreds of thousands of business failures, millions of people being thrown out of their jobs and a dramatic increase in political frictions. I believe that this new Buy-and-Hold Crisis will provide the push we need to get a number of people (including Wade) speaking out. It’s all downhill sledding from there. It will be a horrible event to live through. It could bring on the Second Great Depression. But if we make it in one piece to the other side, we will all be able to work together to bury the Get Rich Quick/Buy-and-Hold stuff 30 feet in the ground, where it can do no further harm to humans and other living things.

Please make me down as being 100 percent in agreement with Evidence that the Greaney study is in error but 100 percent in disagreement with Evidence that the error does not need to be promptly corrected. I believe that the error should have been corrected within 24 hours of the moment at which Greaney became aware of it (the morning of May 13, 2002).

My best wishes to you and yours.

Rob