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A Rich Life

The Old Ideas on Saving & Investing Don't Work -- Here's What Does

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Is the Same Song We Sing. Glad You Belong to the Same Choir We Do."





    Carolyn McClanahan, Director of Financial Planning
    for Life Planning Partners, Inc.

  • "Retirees Now Frequently Base Their Retirement Decisions on the Portfolio Success Rates Found in Research Such as the Trinity Study.... This Is Not the Information They Need for Making Their Withdrawal Rate Decisions."




    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "The P/E10 Tool Could Drastically Change
    How the Entire Investment Industry
    Operates and Measures Risk."





    Larry, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Your Money or Your Life Book
    for a New Generation."





    Beatrix Fernandex, Book Reviewer
    for Dollar Stretcher Site

  • "A Newer School of Thought Believes That the Safe Withdrawal Rate Depends on How Stocks Are Priced at the Time You Begin Making Withdrawals."





    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News Finance Columnist

  • "A Fascinating Retirement Calculator."







    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "The Evidence is Pretty Incontrovertible. Valuation-Informed Indexing...Is Everywhere Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over Ten-Year Periods."




    Norbert Schenkler,
    Co-Owner of Financial WebRing Forum

  • "Every Detail Shows Rob's Respect
    for His Information and His Reader."






    Audrey Owen, Owner of Writer's Helper Site

  • "You’ve Accomplished Something Radical
    With Your Idea of Passion Saving."





    Mark Michael Lewis,
    Money, Mission & Meaning Talk Show Host

  • "Big Moves Out of Stocks Should Not Be Done at All. But Strategic Asset Allocation Can Be Done At Very Rare Times, Maybe Six Times in an Investor’s Lifetime, Three Times When the Market Is Stupidly High and Three Times When Stupidly Low."



    John Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "Valuation-Informed Investing and Passive Investing
    Share More of a Common Ancestry
    Than It Might Appear at First."





    Jacob Irwin, Owner of Passive Investing Blog Carnival

  • "It Is Great to See a Finance Journalist Who Understands That Valuations Matter. Efficient Market Zealotry Is Rampant in the Journalism Community. I Just Love Your Valuation-Based Return Calculator."




    Rich Toscano, Pacific Capital Associates

  • "There Is Always An Unlimited Supply of Complainers Against Any Good Idea."






    Mr. Money Mustache Blogger

  • "Rob: This Has Been One of the Most Insightful and Helpful Comments I Think Anyone Has Ever Posted. Thank You for This Lesson and for Sharing Your Knowledge on This Subject!"




    My Money Design Blogger

  • "There Is An Extensive Literature About the Predictability of Long-Term Stock Returns. There Is an Extensive Literature About Short-Term Market Timing. My Question Is About Long-Term Market Timing. The Literature Seems Slim."



    Wade Pfau, Retirement Income Professor
    at The American College

  • "Your Ideas Are Sound."







    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "For Years, the Investment Industry Has
    Tried to Scare Clients Into Staying Fully Invested
    in the Stock Market at All Times, No Matter
    How High Stocks Go. It's Hooey.
    They're Leaving Out More Than Half the Story."



    Brett Arends, The Wall Street Journal

  • "There Are Time-Periods Where Stocks Are a Terrible Addition to That Portfolio. Yet Inexplicably, We As Planners STILL tend to Suggest That It Is 'Risky' to Not Own Stocks When in Reality the Only Risk Is to Our Business."




    Michael Kitces, Maryland Financial Planner

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Provides More Wealth for 102 of 110 of the Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods While Buy-and-Hold Did Better in Eight of the Periods."






    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "There Is a Growing Behavioral Economics Movement, But It So Far Has Had Limited Impact. Economists Are Not Fond of the Softness and Imprecision of Psychology. These Notions Are Considered Vaguely Unprofessional and Flaky."



    Robert Shiller, Yale University Economic Professor

  • "I Would Occasionally Get a Response Post
    Saying I Was 'the Best Since Rob Bennett
    Challenged Us to Think.'"




    A Popular Bogleheads Forum Poster Named "Retired at 48" Who Was Banned for Challenging Buy-and-Hold

  • "New Research by Rob Bennett Shows That
    Even a 4% Withdrawal Rate Could Cause Failure
    If You Start Retirement When
    Stock Market Valuations Are High.”




    Bernard Kelly, Consultant

  • "FuhGedDaBouDit!"




    William Bernstein, Author of
    The Four Pillars of Investing
    (When Asked Whether We Can Use the Old School Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies to Plan Our Retirements)

  • "This [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is a Very Handy Little Tool."






    Felix Salmon, Market Movers Blog

  • "A Much Simpler Way to Bring
    the Valuation Issue to Focus."
    (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)





    Karteek Narayanaswarmy, Blogger

  • "It's Informative, It's Based on Solid Data and It Provides Useful Results." (Referring to The Stock-Return Predictor)






    Political Calculations Blog

  • "Meet Three Couples Who Left the Corporate World to Do the Kinds of Work That Satisfied Them."






    Liz Pulliam Weston, MSN Money Columnist

  • "I Like Rob's Fresh Views and Tips
    on the Subject of Saving Money."






    The Digerati Life Blog

  • "A Very Solid Approach to Investing."







    Michael Harr, Founder of Walden Advisors

  • "Rob Bennett Has Been on a Tear With One Outstanding RobCast After Another."





    John Walter Russell, Owner of
    Early-Retirement-Planning-Insights.com Site

  • "It’s Time for a Different Way to Look at Investing, and Rob Is Onto Something Here."






    Kevin Mercadante, Owner of Out of Your Rut Blog

  • "My Afternoon Train Reading."
    (Referring to Rob's Article titled
    Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work)





    Barry Ritholtz, Owner of The Big Picture Blog

  • "What Is It With Guys Named Rob?
    Longtime Index Agitator Rob Arnott Has Now
    Been Joined on These Pages by a
    Vanguard Diehard Agitator Named Rob Bennett."




    Jim Wiandt, IndexUniverse.com Publisher

  • "He Offers a Fresh New Perspective
    that Will Motivate You to Get on Track
    With a Solid Savings Plan."





    Lynn Terry, Click Newz Blog

  • "While Browsing at www.PassionSaving.com the Other Day, I Discovered an Article Featuring Ten Unconventional Money-Saving Tips. Each of These Offers a New Way to See Money."




    J.D. Roth, Owner of Get Rich Slowly Site

  • "Rob Has Ideas About Investing That Many Bloggers Find 'Interesting.' His Posts Are Often Controversial and Always Thought Provoking."





    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Is There a Way to Turn Saving Into Something Fun? If There Was, I Bet a Lot More of Us Would Do a Lot More Saving. I Found a Website Where This Basic Premise Is Explored in Great Depth."




    The Great WeiszGuy Blog

  • "I Have Much More Confidence in My Ability to Understand What Is Happening....I Thank You for Your Public Service, and, In Another Dimension, for the Personal Courage It Took to Make It Happen."




    Elizabeth, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Was Hooked on the Idea of [Passive] Index Indexing, But Something Inside Made Me Wonder "Too Good to Be True?" and "What's the Downside?" I Happened on to Your Site and Valuation-Informed Indexing Seems to Make Sense."



    Coleen, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Reads Like a Casual Conversation
    with a Likable Guy Who Wants Nothing More
    Than to Help Others Experience the Same Joy
    and Happiness He Has Found."




    Kara, Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Your 'Secrets' Are Exactly Like Magic Tricks: Once Revealed, They Look So Simple, Yet You Need Somebody to Show You How It Works."





    Kramerizio, Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob's Da Man! Never in the History of the Diehards Forum Has One Poster, Always Making Civil and Well Thought-Out Posts, Managed to Irritate So Many Without Anyone Being Able to Articulate a Good Reason As to Why."




    Mephistopheles, Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I’ve Been Surprised at How Controversial This Idea Is, but If Most People Are Buying and Holding, They Are Emotionally Invested in This Strategy."





    Jennifer Barry, Live Richly Blogger

  • "The Findings for [Long-Term] Market Timing Are So Robust That It Hardly Matters How We Do It."






    Wade Pfau, Asociate Professor of Economics

  • "The Elegant Simplicity of His Ideas Throughout Warms the Heart and Startles the Brain."






    Tom Gardner, Co-Founder of the Motley Fool Site

  • "Mr. Bennett Evidences an Unusual Skill....
    You'll Have to Buy a Copy....Extraordinary....
    A Massive Heap of Crap."




    John Greaney,
    Owner of the Retire Early Home Page Site

  • "By Reading All the Information on Your Website I Was Able to Develop a Part of Me I Didn't Know I Would Be Able to Become."





    Javier, PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Innovative Financial Thinking."







    No Limits, Ladies Blog

  • "Knowledgeable."







    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "Holy Toledo! This Is Great Stuff!"






    Bill Schultheis, Author of
    The New Coffeehouse Portfolio

  • ""He Offers Down-to-Earth But
    Nevertheless Eye-Opening Insights About
    the Why and the How of Early Retirement."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Challenges Unfounded Assumptions."







    Bill Sholar, Founder of the Early Retirement Forum

  • "Seminal."






    John Greaney, Owner of Retire Early Home Page Site
    (Pre-May 13, 2002 Version)

  • "It’s Always Good to Read Something New That Challenges Your Way of Thinking."






    Invest It Wisely Blog

  • "Rob, Thanks for All of Your Articulate, Well-Written and Well-Reasoned Commentary."






    Elle, a Poster at the Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "Although Rob and I Don’t See Eye to Eye
    on Every Detail, His Site Is a
    Valuable Resource for Research."





    Ken Faulkenberry, Portfolio Manager

  • "Thanks, Rob. I Love Seeing So Many
    Personal Finance Bloggers Who Offer Such
    High Quality Content on Their Own Sites Come Here
    to Weigh In [on Your Ideas]."




    Married With Debt Blogger

  • "A Ton of Tremendously Useful Content."







    Network Abundance Radio

  • "Your Enthusiasm Is Infectious."







    Ruth, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Woke Up at 4:00 am and Stared at the Wall for 20 Minutes....Thank You for Doing What You Do."






    Tasha, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "It Might Just Give You
    a New Way of Looking at Saving."






    Kevin Surbaugh, Owner of Debt Free 4Ever Blog

  • "'Staying Too Long in a Job Where You Don’t Feel Relevant Takes a Toll,' Said Rob Bennett, Who Worked for Years in a Well-Paying Corporate Communications Job Where He Didn’t Have Enough to Do."




    The New York Times

  • "You Have Started One of the Most Interesting
    and Stimulating Discussions This Board has Seen
    in a Long Time."





    Poster at Motley Fool Site

  • "A Respected Author and Commentator, Mr. Bennett has Dedicated Himself to Educating Average Investors to Avoid the Most Common Errors."





    Liberty Watch Site

  • "I've Gone from Shattered Dreams of Early Retirement to Glimpses of Hope to Reassurance from Quantitative Research."





    Patricia, A PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "Some of the Most Helpful and Insightful Market Discussions on the Web Take Place on These Pages."





    A Poster at the Safe WithDrawal Rate Research Group
    (Founded by Rob)

  • "Rob is the Only Person I Know (If Only via Message Board) Who has Completely Opted Out of Participation in the Stock Bubble. And You Know What? He Has Benefited Immensely from Doing So."




    Poster at Motley Fool

  • "Makes the Subject of Saving Edgy and Fresh."







    Maxine, A Reader of Rob's Book

  • "Rob Bennett, the Author of a Book Called Passion Saving, Thinks the Saving Problem Is Partly One of Packaging. So He Prefers to Couch it in the Language of Freedom."





    The Wall Street Journal

  • "This Tip Comes from Rob Bennett
    of the Finance Site PassionSaving.com."






    Lifehacker.com

  • "I LOVE This Article and
    Am Proud to be Publishing It!"




    Chuck Yanikoski, Executive Director of
    The Association of Integrative Financial
    and Life Planning

  • "Rob Bennett: Some People Disagree With Him, and He Rubs a Lot of People the Wrong Way. But He Has Interesting Ideas About Valuation-Informed Indexing, and He Delves Into a Lot of What Makes a Successful Investing Strategy."



    Miranda Marquit, Planting Money Seeds Blog

  • "Rob….Wow…..Your Response Sent Shivers
    Up the Ol’ Pilgrim Spine."






    Neal Frankie, Owner of the Wealth Pilgrim Blog

  • "I Have Counseled My Clients to Allocate a Percentage to Equities Based Upon Market Valuations....I Feel Like I've Found a Kindred Spirit. Fascinating Web Site."





    Tom Behlmer, Financial Planner

  • “A Simple Age-Based Asset Allocation Formula Is Not Appropriate, and Any Sensible Asset-Allocation Formula Should Combine Both Age/Investment Horizon and Market Valuation Levels.”




    RationalInvestor.biz

  • "Had a Guest Post This Week from Rob Bennett, Where He Discusses the Benefits of Value-Informed Indexing, Which I Find Very Intriguing."





    Sustainable Personal Finance Blog

  • "I Can Appreciate Rob's Comments.... Buy-and-Hold?
    For the Most Part, a Long Obsolete Theory."






    Neal Deutsch, Certified Financial Planner

  • "Utterly Brilliant!"







    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Your Website Is So Enjoyable That It Is Keeping Me From My Research As I Am So Excited That I Have Found Such a Valuable Resource."





    Stuart, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "What We're Talking About Here Really
    ...Is Empowerment."






    Motley Fool Poster

  • "The Return Predictor Is Based upon the Principle that Over the Long Term, Stock Market Prices Will Reflect the Ten-Years Earnings Growth of the Underlying Companies. Prices Return to a Common Growth Pattern."




    Links.com Review of The Stock-Return Predictor

  • "Rob’s Arguments in Favor of Value Investing Actually Make a Lot of Sense In a Way That Should Make Any Rational Buy-and-Holder Uncomfortable."





    Pop Economics Blog

  • "What I Don't Understand Is How Rob Can Correspond in Such a Sweet and Polite Way
    -- Yet He Irritates Me to No End!"





    Financial WebRing Forum Poster

  • "You Go About It in a Manner that is Catastrophically Unproductive by Adding Missionary Zeal that Inflates Your Importance and Demeans Others. The Whole Idea That There is a New School of Safe Withdrawal Rates Reeks of Personal Aggrandizement."



    Scott Burns, Dallas Morning News

  • "Inflammatory."







    Morningstar.com Site Administrator

  • “What Warren Buffett Did Was Essentially Quite Close to What Rob Bennett Has Written. Buffett Has in Fact Been Cleverly Incorporating Long-Term Market Timing Based on Valuation of the Market in His Allocation of Money to Stocks.”



    Investor Notes Blog

  • "This Report Offers A Fresh Perspective That Is Rarely Found In Other Financial Literature."






    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "Rob Bennett Says That Market Timing Based on Aggregate P/E Ratios Can Be a Far More Effective Strategy. This Claim Is Consistent With Shiller's Analysis and I Can See How It Might Be So."




    Rajiv Sethi, Economics Professor at Columbia Univeristy

  • "Retiring Early Was A Concept I Did Not Entertain. I Was Going to Retire at 65 After Putting in 40 Years. Now I Am Glad To Say That All That Has Changed."





    Secrets of Retiring Early Reader

  • "In a Couple of Days, I Had
    Devoured the Entire Book."






    Reader of Rob's Book

  • "FIRECalc May Not Be the Last Word
    on Safe Withdrawal Rates."






    Jonathan Clements, Wall Street Journal

  • "It Seems to Me That Some on This Board Feel Threatened by the Arrival of Rob and His Ideas. They Feel a Threat to Their Perceived Elite Status."





    Motley Fool Poster

  • "You've Got to Say One Thing for Rob. He Has NEVER Lowered Himself to Ad Hominen Attacks -- Subliminal or Otherwise -- on Any Other Person on This Board. Not Once. Ever. At Least Give Him Credit for That."




    Motley Fool Poster

  • "I Have Never Seen Rob Show Incivility. No Matter What. Truly Amazing. Either He Is Really the Output of an Artificial Intelligence Program, or the Man's on the Way to Becoming a Saint!"




    Early Retirement Forum Poster

  • "You're the Politest Guy on the Internet.
    Such a Soft Touch!"






    Jonathan Lewis

  • "Props for Keeping Your Cool in the Married with Debt Article. Best of Luck Combating Buy-and-Hold."






    Money Mamba Blogger

  • "I Caught Up [at the Financial Bloggers Conference] With a Fairly Controversial Financial Blogger
    Named Rob Bennett, Who Struck Me As the
    Nicest Guy Around. There -- I Said It!"




    Digerati Life Blogger

  • "In Rob Bennett's Case, He Was Banned for No Known Listed Forum Policy. Except His Viewpoint Was Different From Other Bogleheads and [He Was Perceived As] a Threat."




    Investor Junkie Blog

  • "Mr. Bennett, You Are Spot on About Integrating Some Type of Valuation Filter to One's Stock Allocation. Astute Investors Have Incorporated Some Type of 'Valuation Timing' Into Their Investment Decisions Since the Beginning of Time."



    Poster at the Psy Fi Blog

  • "His Insights Into What Is Really Going On In The Stock Market Are Quite Compelling."






    Future Storm Blog

  • "It Was an Epiphany...Valuation-Informed Indexing Beats Buy-and-Hold Over Most Long-Term Holding Periods at Much Lower Volatility."





    Sam, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "I Am Intrigued By Your Ideas."







    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "I Read the Book and I Loved It.
    The Philosophy Resonated with Me.
    I Am a Believer in Your Concept."





    Dr. Peter Weiss, Author of More Health, Less Care

  • "If Your Investment Ideas Can Do for Investing
    What Weston Price’s Ideas Did for Food,
    You’ve Got Our Attention."





    End Times Hoax Blog

  • "I Have Looked at His Website and Reviewed His Research and Find It Both Compelling and Completely Logical and Common-Sense-Based."





    Poster at Free Money Finance Blog

  • "If Investors Paid More Attention to Valuations, We Would Have Fewer Boom-and-Bust Cycles. The Investing Institutions Are Definitely Going to Avoid It Because It Affects Their Income."




    Hope to Prosper Blog

  • "The Calculators on Your Site Are Great Resources. It Amazes Me How So Many People Can Say 'Valuations Matter' Yet, in the Next Breath, They'll Say That We Should Ignore Valuations."




    John Marlowe, Logistics Analyst at Hess Corporation

  • "Must Read As Per My Viewpoint
    For All Value Seekers."






    Ajit Vakil, Value Investing Congress

  • "His Approach Is Both Mathematically Rigorous
    and Easy to Understand."






    Online Investing AI Blog

  • "There Is Nothing More Doubtful of Success Than a New System. The Initiator Has the Enmity of All Who Profit By Preservation of the Old Institution and Merely Lukewarm Defenders in Those Who Gain By the New One."




    Machiavelli

  • "Difficult Subjects Can Be Explained to the Most Slow-Witted Man If He Has Not Formed Any Idea of Them. But the Simplest Thing Cannot Be Made Clear to the Most Intelligent Man If He Believes He Knows Already What Is Laid Before Him."



    Tolstoy

  • "I Am Not Afraid. I Was Born to Do This."







    Joan of Arc

  • "I Certainly Have Seen the Academic Profession Squelching Unfashionable ideas and Have Often Been on the Wrong Side of It. Kuhn Shows How Most Pathbreaking Scientific Ideas Are Rejected at First, Usually for Decades.”




    Carol Osler, Brandeis International Business School

  • "First They Ignore You, Then They Ridicule You, Then They Fight You, Then You Win."






    Ghandi

  • "We Cannot Assume the Existence of Predictability Just Because There Are No Studies That Fully Reject It."






    Valeriy Zakamulin, Economics Professor

  • "I Am Also Extremely Grateful to Rob Bennett for Motivating This Topic and Contributing His Experience and Encouragement."





    Wade Pfau, Academic Researcher

  • "Rob Bennett Was an Early Pioneer in 3rd Generation Modeling by Advocating (Through Various Online Forums) that Withdrawal Rates Must Be Adjusted for Market Valuations Consistent with Research by Campbell and Shiller."



    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "I Am Fascinated by the Growing Body of Research that Revolves Around the P/E10 Ratio by Robert Shiller, Doug Short, Wade Pfau, Michael Kitces, John Hussman, Crestmont Research, Jim Otar, Mike Philbrick, Adam Butler & Rob Bennett."



    Kay Conheady in Advisor Perspectives

  • "Rob Is an Enigma in the Personal Finance World. He Has Interesting Theories on Investing Based on Market Valuations. But He Weaves a Tale Which Makes the Stories of Alexander Litvinenko & Gareth Williams Seem Tame by Comparison."



    Don't Quit Your Day Job Blog

  • "In Recent Years, the 4 Percent Rule
    Has Been Thrown Into Doubt."






    The Wall Street Journal

  • "A Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Very Dependent
    on the Valuation of the Stockmarket
    at the Retirement Date."





    Economist Magazine

  • "I Have Read Everything I Can About Valuation-Informed Indexing. Buy-and-Hold Is Extremely Problematic. I Respect the Passion, Hard Work and Research That You Have Put Into This Very Important Issue. Your Work Has Huge Value."



    Carl Richards, Owner of Clearwater Asset Management

  • "The World of Personal Finance Blogging Needs More Rob Bennetts. He’s Passionate. He’s Intelligent. He’s Writing Things That Go Against the Grain."





    Financial Uproar Blog

  • "Beyond Awesome."







    Larry, a PassionSaving.com Site Visitor

  • "The Wealth Management Industry Seems Intent on Containing This Discussion for Fear Clients Might Discover that the Emperor Has No Clothes."





    Adam Butler, Portfolio Manager

  • "Recommended Reading."







    Jesse's Cafe Americain Blog

  • “All Who Are Still Holding Equities at Present Levels Because Their Financial Adviser Insists that Timing Market Cycles Is Impossible to Do -- Read This!"





    Juggling Dynamite Blog

  • "The Fact that Aggressive and Short-Term Market Timing Was Unproductive Did Not Mean That There Were Never Times When It Would Be Wealth-Maximizing to Get Out of the Market."



    Scott Burris,Director of the Center for
    Health Law, Policy and Practice

  • "The Amount of Return You Can Expect From a Diversified Equity Portfolio Is Inversely Correlated to the Market Valuation at the Start of the Holding Period. It Is One of the Most Robust Statistical Relationships in Modern Finance."




    Todd Tresidder, Financial Mentor Blog

  • "Why Would Your Job Be Jeopardized
    By Such a Sensible Claim?"





    Marcelle Chauvet, Econmics Professor
    at University of California

  • "Received Worrisome E-Mail from Rob Bennett. Warns of Risk with Buy-and-Hold Investing
    -- I Have No Clue."





    Vivek Wadhaw, Business Week Columnist

  • "As Attorney, Tax Expert and Financial Writer Rob Bennett Told Us, the Problem Is That, By the Time Shiller Published His Research, Many Big Names Had Already Endorsed Buy-and-Hold."




    ZeroHedge.com

  • "This Seems to Me to Be a Fundamental Challenge to Some of the Most Basic Tenets of the Boglehead Paradigm."






    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "You Want to be Very, Very Wary of Anything Connected with Rob Bennett, the Most Infamous Troll in the History of Investing Forums on the Internet."





    Alex Fract, Owner of Bogleheads Forum

  • “I’ve Had My Fill of Those Long-Winded Posts that Include Distortions, Unsubstantiated Claims, Misquotes and Comments Taken Out of Context.”




    Mel Lindauer, Co-Author of
    The Bogleheads Guide to Investing

  • "Haven't You Noticed Yet That NO ONE Discusses Your Ideas, NO ONE Mentions Your Name, NO ONE Goes To Your Web Site."





    One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Had Similar Experiences. I Know of Two Young Professors Who Wanted to Do Research on Fundamental Index and Reported to Me That Their Colleagues Advised Them That This Line of Research Could Derail Their Career Prospects."



    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "As with Drug Studies Funded by Drug Companies, It Would Be Churlish to Suppose that the Chicago School of Business Was in the Bag. But It Would Also Be Idealistic to Assume That There Was No Funding Bias at All."




    Bogleheads Poster

  • "This Sort of Intimidation Is Not Acceptable. The Cigarette and Pharmaceutical Industries Found Research Supporting Their Products By Funding It. But That Was Big Money Supporting Outcomes, Not Dissuading Others."




    Lyn Graham, 25-Year CPA

  • "Financial Economists Gave Little Warning to the Public About the Fragility of Their Models. There Is No Ethical Code for Professional Economic Scientists. There Should Be One."



    Paper Titled The Financial Crisis and
    the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics

  • "The Situation [Referring to the Intimidation Tactics Used to Silence Academic Researcher Wade Pfau's Reporting of the Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies] Seems Well Below Any Professional and Academic Acceptable Standards."



    Albert Sanchez Graells, Law Lecturer

  • Many Academics Can Become Quite Strident When Their Views Are Challenged. Academia Is Often Subject to Self-Serving Bias That Obliterates Ethical Bounds."





    Ted Sichelman, Law Professor

  • "I Don't Like Too Much the Conspiracy Idea. I Am Not Pressured By Anyone in My Research."






    Roberto Reno, Economics Professor

  • "This Is What Investing Should Be -- Calculated, Deliberate, Confident, Informed and Simple."






    Aaron Friday, Owner of Aaron's Blob Blog

  • "It Is Obvious that Rob, in Attempting to Identify New Safe Withdrawal Rate Strategies...Is Goring Your Ox. If Rob Improves on [the] Safe Withdrawal Rate Methodology, the Implication Is Clear: You Are All, Metaphorically, Out of Business."



    Bogleheads Poster

  • "I Applaud His Effort to Inject Another Piece of Objectivity Into a Very Complex, Highly Subjective Topic -- Making Money in the Market."





    Bogleheads Poster

  • "Naturally, I Am Finding That Valuation-Informed Indexing Can Allow You to Reach a Wealth Target With a Lower Saving Rate and to Use a Higher Withdrawal Rate in Retirement Than You Could With a Fixed Allocation."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "A Careful Examination of Past Returns Can Establish Some Probabilities About the Prospective Parameters of Return, Offering Intelligent Investors a Basis for Rational Expectations About Future Returns."




    Jack Bogle, Founder of Vanguard Funds

  • "The Ability to Estimate the Long-Term Future Returns of the Major Asset Classes Is Perhaps the Most Important Investment Skill That An Indivisual Can Possess."




    William Bernstein, Author of The Four Pillars of Investing

  • "The Stock Market Resembles Roulette. In Both Cases, the Accuracy of Sensible Forecasts Rises Over Time."






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "Returns Are for the Most Part a Matter of Simple Arithmetic...Much of Our Industry Seems Fearful of Basic Arithmetic of This Sort."





    Rob Arnott, Financial Analysts Journal Editor

  • "How Can It Be That One-Year Returns Are So Apparantly Random and Yet Ten-Year Returns Are Mostly Forecastable? In Looking at One-Year Returns, One Sees a Lot of Noise. But Over Longer Time Intervals the Noise Effectively Averages Out and Is Less Important."




    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller

  • "The Notion That Rich Valuations Will Not Be Followed By Sub-Par Long-Term Returns Is a Speculative Idea That Runs Counter to All Historical Evidence. It Is an Iron Law of Finance That Valuations Drive Long-Term Returns."




    John Hussman

  • "It's January and the Temperature Is Below Freezing. If You Asked Me Whether It Will be Warmer or Cooler Next Tuesday, I Would Be Unable to Say. However, If You Asked Me What Temperature to Expect on April 9, I Could Predict "Warmer Than Today" and Almost Surely Be Right."



    Michael Alexanfer, Author of Stock Cycles

  • "If the Response Is "Who Knew?", It Won't Be Much Comfort for Retirees in the Employment Line at Wal-Mart. This is Especially True Since a Rational Understanding of History and the Drivers of Longer-Term Stock Returns Can Help Retirees To Avoid That Surprise."




    Ed Easterling, Author of Unexpected Returns

  • "New of the Demise of the Random Walk Has Only Very Slowly Spread, In Part Because Its Overthrow Came as a Shock. If the Random Walk Hypothesis Were Correct, the Most Likely Return Would Be the Historic Average Return. The Evidence, However, Is Strongly Against This."



    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "I Don't Think We Can Debate the Merits of This Type of Forecasting [Referring to the Numbers Generated by The Stock-Return Predictor] Unless We Believe 'This Time It's Different.'"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Before the Ban on Honest Posting Was Adopted There)

  • "I've Seen Absolutely Nothing From You That I Can Use in a Tangible Fashion to Formulate an Investment Plan. Your Ideas Are So Mushy That It's a Complete Waste of Time to Even Consider Them."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "Do You Really Think Your Tool
    [The Stock-Return Predictor]
    Is 'Wiser' Than the Market?
    If It Was That Easy,
    Everybody Would Be Doing It."



    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "The Expected Return of Stocks [As Reported By The Stock-Return Predictor] Needs To Be At Least the Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) Rate for Stock Investing To Make Sense."




    Bogleheads Forum Poster

  • "I Have Used Valuations to Adjust My Asset Allocation For Many Years With Very Favorable Results."





    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "I Don't Care If You Do or Don't Believe That the Market Will Behave Similarly in the Future As It Has in the Past. Either Way, This [The Stock-Return Predictor] Is an Excellent Way to Understand What the Market Has Done In the Past."


    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "My Role Is To Give People Who Don't Like What the Historical Stock-Return Data Says About the Effect of Valuations on Long-Term Returns Somebody To Yell At On Internet Discussion Boards."



    Rob Bennett at Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "It Really Is a Shame and Indefensible That So Many Feel the Need to Jump Into It With No Interest of Posting on the Topic But Just to Disrupt. Are You That Insecure? Some on the Forum Have an Interest in This Topic. If You Don't, Stay Out!"



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "Irrational Behavior Does Follow Patterns. But How Many Experts in Behavioral Finance Believe That Such Knowledge Can Be Used to Predict Markets? Basically, None. Your Model Cannot Attain the Level of Predictive Value You Claim."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "The Safe Withdrawal Rate Studies Are Based on History. This [The Retirement Risk Evaluator] Shows, Based on the Same History, What the Probabilities Are for the Future at Various Starting Points. If the First Has Value, Then Surely This Does Too."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum

  • "There Are Hundreds of People Who Contributed to This. This Calculator [The Stock-Return Predictor] Demonstrates in a Compelling Way the Power of This New Internet Discussion-Board Communications Medium."




    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "A P/E10 of'26' Is Bad. Now Look at the 30-Year Return Predicted by the Calculator -- 5.4 Percent Real. That's Not Bad. There Are All Sorts of Strategic Implications That Follow From Understanding That Stocks Provide Different Sorts of Returns Over Different Sorts of Time-Periods."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Would Never Invest in Anything Without Having Any Idea What the Expected Return Is. For Instance, I Would Not Walk Into a Bank And Say "I'll Take One Certificate of Deposit, Please" WIthout Asking What Rate They Are Offering."



    Poster at Bogleheads Forum
    [Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting]

  • "I've Seen Things Said on Investing Boards That I Have Never Heard Said in Discussions of Any Non-Investing Topic. The Question of Whether Valuations Affect Long-Term Returns Is a Topic That Causes People More Emotional Angst Than Does Abortion or Impeachment Proceedings or the War in Iraq."



    Rob Bennett at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "It's Not Possible For Those Who Have Come to Believe That Stocks Are Always Best to Accept that Valuations Matter. The Two Beliefs Are Mutually Exclusive. If Valuations Matter, There Is Obviously Some Valuation Level At Which Stocks Are Not Best. The Two Paradigms Cannot Be Reconciled."


    Rob Bennett

  • "The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Is Over. Rob Bennett Has Won.The Technical Evidence Supporting This Assertion Is Rock Solid."




    John Walter Russell,
    Owner of the Early Retirement Planning Insights Site
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on August 3, 2003.]

  • "I Am Afraid that the Emperor SWR [for "Safe Withdrawal Rate"] Has No Clothes."





    A Poster at the Early Retirement Forum
    [This Statement Was Put Forward on October 8, 2003.]

  • "I Cite You and John Walter Russell in My Paper as the Earliest and Strongest Advocates of This Approach [New School Safe Withdrawal Rate Research]."




    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "Dear Rob -- I Just Became Aware of Your Past Research in September. Since Then, I've Read Archives From Many Discussion Boards and Websites, and I Always Find Your Writing to Be Very Interesting and Intriguing."



    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "I Think Rob Bennett Did Provide An Important Contribution in Terms of Describing a Way for P/E10 to Guide Asset Allocation for Long-Term Conservative Investors. I Also Think He Was Right on the Issue of Safe Withdrawal Rates."


    Wade Pfau, Professor of Retirement Income
    at The American College

  • "What Studies Show This [That Long-Term Timing Doesn't Work]? In Particular, Are There Some Academic Studies That I Haven't Found Yet? That's All I Want to Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum After His Own Search of the Literature Turned Up Not a Single Such Study

  • "Because the Precise Timing of This Mean Reversion Is Not Known in Advance, Expecting the Result to Happen in the Short-Term Will Not Be Possible. But Long-Term Investors Who Can Be Patient Can Wait for This Mean Reversion and Will Eventually Come Out Ahead."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Your Work Is at Odds with the Ethos of the Board -- Here the Theme is John Bogle's Philosophy, Which Eschews Market Timing. This Board Came Into Existence to ESCAPE One Individual, the Very Individual With Whom You Have Openly Aligned Yourself."




    A Lindaurhead (to Researcher Wade Pfau)

  • "The Problem With Long-Term Market Timing Is That It Takes Too Long to Find Out If You Are Right or Wrong."






    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Why Is It Such an Odious Violation of the Tenets of Bogleheadism to Explore Whether Someone Who Has Enough Patience Might Be Able to Benefit from the Transitory Nature of Speculative Returns (the Idea That the P/E Ratio Eventually Ends Up Where It Started)?"




    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "Let Me Explain Why I Posted About This Here. Valuation-Informed Indexing Has Had Critics for Years. But Until Norbert Did It In 2008, Nobody Seemed to Have Provided a Serious Investigation of It. I Couldn't Understand Why. That Bothered Me."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "If You Really Don't Like Market Timing in Any and All Forms, You May Not See Any Point in an Empirical Investigation. You View Me as One of a Long Line of Hucksters Trying to Sell You Some Snake Oil. I Don't Want to Be Such a Person."



    Researcher Wade Pfau at the Bogleheads Forum
    (Prior to the Ban on Honest Posting)

  • "Having a Completely Ineleastic Demand for Equities Is a Bit Bonkers. No One Acts That Way with Life's Other Important Commodities. Campbell Advocates a Linear Valuations-Based Strategy so That You Wouldn't Be Making Big Changes. This Would Be Like Rebalancing But More Flexible."



    A Poster at the Bogleheads Forum

  • "The Whole Idea of Valuation-Informed Indexing Belongs to You. Do You Mind if I call the Paper 'Valuation-Informed Indexing'? I Would Give You Credit. I Have Been Toying With the Idea of Sending the Paper to the Journal of Finance, Which Is the Most Prestigious Journal in Academic Finance."


    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau, in an E-Mail to Rob

  • "I Definitely Need to Cite You as the Founder of Valuation-Informed Indexing, As I Have Not Found Anyone Else Who Can Lay Claim to That. Shiller Pointed Out the Predictive Power of P/E10 But Never Discussed How to Incorporate It Into Asset Allocation, As Far As I Know."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "I Tested a Wide Variety of Assumptions About Asset Allocation, Valuation-Based Decision Rules, Whether the Period Is 10, 20, 30 or 40 Years, and Lump-Sum vs. Dollar-Cost Averaging To Show That the Results Are Quite Robust to Changes In Any of These Assumptions."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Yes, Virginia, Valuation-Informed Indexing Works!"




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau
    (Wade Holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton.)
    (The Buy-and-Hold Mafia Threatened to Get Wade Fired From His Job When He Reported His Findings.)

  • "I Wrote Up the Programs to Test Your Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Against Buy-and-Hold and I Am Quite Excited. You Say in the RobCast That VII Should Beat Buy-and-Hold About 90 Percent of the Time. I Am Getting Results That Support This."




    Academic Researcher Wade Pfau

  • "Never Underestimate the Power of a Dominant Academic Idea to Choke Off Competing Ideas, and Never Underestimate the Unwillingness of Academics to Change Their Views in the Face of Evidence. They Have Decades of Their Research and Academic Standing to Defend."




    Jeremy Grantham

  • "There's So Much That's False and Nutty
    in Modern Investing Practice."






    Warren Buffett

  • "Following Conventional Wisdom Has Led a Generation of Investors Down the Road to Ruin."






    Steve Hanke

  • "It Is Sad That the Idea That Price Doesn't Matter...Should Ever Have Been Seriously Considered".






    Andrew Smithers, Co-Author of Valuing Wall Street

  • "The Conventional Wisdom of Modern Investing Is Largely Myth and Urban Legend."





    Rob Arnott, Former Editor of
    Fianncial Analysts Journal

  • "Economics Is a Dog's Breakfast of Theoretical Ideas and Alleged Causal Relationships That Are At All Times Unproven and In Dispute."





    Terence Corcoran, Editor of National Post

  • "Since They Did Not Diagnose the Disease, There Is Little Popular Confidence That They Know the Cure. What If Economics Is, Actually, At the Same Level as Medicine Was When Doctors Still Believed in the Application of Leeches?"




    Gideon Rachman, Financial Times

  • "One of the Most Remarkable Errors
    in the History of Economics."



    Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller
    (Referring to the Logical Leap from the Finding That Short-Term Price Changes Are Unpredictable to the Conclusion That the Market Sets Prices Properly)

  • "Everything Has Fallen Apart."






    Peter Bernstein, Author of Against the Gods
    (Referring to Old Views About How Markets Work)

  • "We Wonder Why Funds and Banks, Full of the Best and Brightest, Have Made Such a Mess of Things. Part of the Reason Is That We Have Taught Economic Nonsense to Two Generations of Students."




    John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline

  • "Perhaps Most Scandalously, the Theory [Behind Buy-and-Hold] Remained Received Wisdom Long After Empirical and Theoretical Arguments Had Demolished It Within the Academic Community."




    John Authers, Financial Times

  • "I Love the Humans Dearly (the Title of the Book I Am Writing Is Investing for Humans: How to Get What Works on Paper to Work in Real Life) But They Can Be a Trial at Times. Hey! Helping the Humans Learn What It Takes to Invest Effectively Is Not All That Different From Being Married!



    Rob Bennett

  • "We Are Going to See Hearts Melt Following the Next Crash. I Will Be Working Side-By-Side With All of My Many Buy-and-Hold Friends to Rebuild Our Broken Economy."





    Rob Bennett

  • "Wow, I Did Not Realize You Had Achieved This Much Success and Had Many Devoted Believers/Followers. That’s Great, Then Ignore the Opposition. It Is Great to Have Opposition: That Means You Are Doing Something Right."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Do NOT Believe I Know It All. I Believe That Shiller Discovered Something Very Important and It Appalls Me That More People Are Not Exploring the Implications of His Findings. My Aim Is To Launch a National Debate."




    Rob Bennett

  • "I Can See How Many Readers Would Be Put Off by the Somewhat Sensational/Scandalist Tone and Would Not Persevere to Read, Thinking You Are Losing Your Mind."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I LOVE Everything About Buy-and-Hold Other Than the Failure to Encourage Investors to Take Price Into Consideration When Setting Their Stock Allocations. That's a Mistake That Was Made Because Shiller’s Research Was Not Available at the Time The Strategy Was Being Developed."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Valuation-Informed Indexing Sounds Like a Real Thing. If It Is and I Can Thoroughly Understand It, Then It Will End Up In My Classrooms and in My Students' Minds (Of Course, With References to You and Wade)."




    Robert Savickas, Associate Finance Professor
    at George Washington University

  • "I Can Confirm Wade Pfau's Experience. Whenever I Send My Papers to the Financial Analysts Journal or Similar Traditional Journals, I Get Rejected."





    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "As a Fan of Thomas Kuhn's The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, I Know That Progress Can Be Frustratingly Slow and What Is Typically Needed Is Either a Crisis or the Ascent of a New Generation of Scientists Who Did Not Build Their Careers on the Old Models and Theories."




    Joachim Klement, CIO at Wellershoff & Partners

  • "We Trace the Deeper Roots [of the Financial Crisis] to the Economics' Profession's Insistence on Constructing Models That, By Design, Disregard the Key Elements Driving Outcomes in Real World Markets."




    Knowledge@Wharton

  • "Rob Gets Himself So Worked Up Over What Someone Else Is Doing With Their Own Money and Not Bothering Rob in the Least. As Long As They Aren't Knocking on Your Basement Door, What Do You Care? They Are Happy and Content. Leave Well Enough Alone and Focus on Your Own Account."


    Dab, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I've Been on Forum Since the BBS Days and I Think Rob is Special. He Could Be an Internet Meme If He Put Some Effort Into It. Someday, He Will Realize That the Only Thing He's Good At Is Being an Epic Loser. He Just Needs to Embrace That Idea and Run With It. Watch Out, LOLCats, Here Comes Pathetic Guy!"


    Wabmaster, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "Your Lies Are Not Even in the Realm of the Possible, Much Less Actually Credible, Much Less Actually True."






    Drip Guy, One of the Greaney Goons

  • "I'm Your Friend. I Am Not a Boil on Your Ass."






    Rob Bennett, In a Response Comment
    to One of the Greaney Goons

  • "You Guys [the Greaney Goons] Are the Same Jokers Who Have Done This Before, Sparring with Rob Over Nonsensical Issues On This Site and Others, Leveling Personal Attacks, and You Don't Even Use Real Names! Rob Is Entitled to His Opinion, But the Fact That You Challenge Every Jot and Tittle of What He Says Makes It Clear You Have An Unholy Agenda. Please Take It Elsehwere."

    Kevin Mercadante,
    Owner of the Out of Your Rut Site

  • "Rob, Take This As Friendly Advice. You're a Smart and Articulate Guy and You Could Be Making Valuable Contributions to This Discussion. I've Dealt with the Mentally Ill Before and I've Found That They Sometimes Can Be Reasonable If Gently Redirected."



    Goon Poster

  • "Always Remember Others May Hate You, But Those Who Hate You Don't Win Unless You Hate Them, and Then You Destroy Yourself."





    Richard Nixon

  • "I’m a Numbers Guy. And I Believe I Understand Rob’s Thesis, that Future Returns, Over the Next Decade, Have a Tight Inverse Correlation to the PE10 for the Starting Point. Remember, Correlation Doesn’t Need to be 100%, Only That There’s a Bell Curve of Potential Outcomes that Shift Meaningfully Based on the Input."


    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "What a Difference a Threat to Get the Father of Two Small Children Fired From His Job Has on an Investing Discussion, Eh? Long Live Buy-and-Hold! It’s Science! With a Marketing Twist!"




    Rob, Referring to the Wade Pfau Matter

  • "I Respect Rob and His Analysis. He's Bright, Energetic and Passionate. [The Goon Stuff] Is Really Nonsense. I Enjoy a Thought-Provoking Conversation With People I Respect."





    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "The Fact that Shiller is a Proponent of the Approach Takes it from a Fringe View to Mainstream, in my Opinion."






    Owner of Joe Taxpayer Blog

  • "I Have had Academic Researchers Tell Me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to do Honest Research Once Again. I Have had Investment Advisors Tell me That They Dream of the Day When They Will be Able to Give Honest Investing Advice Again."



    Rob Bennett

  • "Let’s Call a Spade a Spade, Shall We? Wade Pfau Stole Your Research and Put His Name on it, Throwing You Just a Tiny Crumb of Acknowledgement to Ward Off a Lawsuit. He’s Profiting Handsomely By His Theft, Leading a Charmed Life, Widely Published, Widely Respected. While Rob Bennett Continues to Toil in Total Obscurity. It’s So Incredibly Unfair, I Think If It Happened to Me, It Could Actually Drive Me Insane."

    One of the Greaney Goons

  • About Us
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  • Blog
  • Passion Saving
    • 20 Dangerous Money Myths — They Think We’re Stupid!
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  • Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • Why Buy-and-Hold Investing Can Never Work
    • About Valuation-Informed Indexing
    • The Stock-Return Predictor
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    • The Investor’s Scenario Surfer
    • The Investment Strategy Tester
    • The Returns Sequence Reality Checker
    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies
  • The Buy-and-Hold Crisis
    • Academic Researcher Silenced by Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies
    • Academic Researcher Silenced By Threats to Get Him Fired From His Job After Showing Dangers of Buy-and-Hold Investing Strategies — Teaser Version
    • Corruption in the Investing Advice Field — The Wade Pfau Story
    • The Bennett/Pfau Research Showing Middle-Class Investors How to Reduce the Risk of Stock Investing by 70 Percent
    • Buy-and-Hold Caused the Economic Crisis
    • The True Cause of the Current Financial Crisis — Questions and Answers
    • Investing Discussion Boards Ban Honest Posting on Valuations
    • Wall Street Journal Calls Buy-and-Hold a “Myth,” Endorses Valuation-Informed Indexing

“We Have All Fallen Short”

September 10, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail sent by Larry to me on November 13, 2009 and the text of an e-mail sent by Larry to me on November 15, 2009.

Rob,

You make some very good points. Jesus did speak up expecially to the pharisees and know it alls of his day. He did not limit his world to the “good” people of the day. We  have all  fallen short. Myself included. I need to process your thoughts for a day or so.

Larry

Rob,

Thank you for your note.

I think you are right in many ways.  Valuation informed investing is a great tool that helps the average investor invest prudently. In addition, the tool helps individual investors save thousands of dollars over the course of  their investing life time. I’m convinced that your tools are valid and helpful to the average investor.

I have no more philosophical points to debate. You are doing what you believe you are called to do in a way that works for you.

I finished reading the information on your site and John’s. I feel like I just finished a PHD in valuation informed investing!

Have a great Sunday with your family.

Larry

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: internet harassmenrt, jesus and the stock market, the truth about stock investing

“When People Fail to Speak Up About Obvious Evils, Those Evils Retain the Power to Do Harm to People”

September 9, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Larry on November 13, 2009.

Larry:

I am grateful that you care and that you are willing to share your sincere thoughts re this with me. That’s obviously a kindness. I of course agree that God placed people like my wife and my brother (and you!) in my life to guide me to good things. I do try to hear what they have to say and to the extent possible I try to acknowledge that it is possible that I am not hearing all that I need to hear. It’s hard for all of us to do that. All that we can do is to try as hard as we can to remain open to other takes.

I entirely agree when you say that I should not try to force my message on anyone. But then I don’t do that! I think people should invest according to their own beliefs. I’ve certainly never said different. The way that it should work is that I should share what I think and others should share what they think and those listening in should decide for themselves. That’s the ordinary operating procedure in all areas other than investing, is it not? I think that’s what would work best in the investing area too.

If you are ever interested in reading background materials re this aspect of things, I provide a number  of articles at the “Banned at Motley Fool!” section of the site. It’s there to help people come to a better understanding. If you or anyone else ever expressed interest in writing something giving a side to the story that I have not put forward, I would be happy to post something like that as an article at that section of the site. My guess is that you are not interested in doing that and that is of course fine. I am just saying that in the event that you or anyone else were interested, I think it would be a good thing. I am not saying that my views on this aspect of things should be the only views heard.

You say that I cannot “control” whether the internet is opened to honest posting on investment topics. I obviously cannot control that by myself. But I control it IN PART. We all do. Each of us through our posting decisions make the internet a little more open to honest posting or a little more closed to it. I want my posts to be posts that encourage more openness. That much I control. I understand that I do not control more than that, but I don’t view doing more than that to be my responsibility.

I am all for having more allies. That is solid, practical, constructive advice. I would like to have thousands of allies. You are of course right that that is a critical piece of business. Tell me where to sign up for more allies!

I don’t understand what you are suggesting when you say that I “focus” on detractors. I don’t feel that I focus on detractors any more than I focus on supporters. I talk and write about both all the time. I don’t IGNORE the detractors, that much would be fair to say. I strongly believe that the detractors and the tactics they have employed to block the supporters from having the discussions they want to have are a big part of the story.

I don’t view this as an intellectual story. Everything I have pointed out has been “known” (in the sense that it has been publicly available information) for 28 years now. I think a big question here is — Why is information that has been publicly available for so long not widely known? It’s because people are afraid to bring it up or to talk about it or to ask questions about it. In my eyes, that’s the entire deal. Once we get over our fear of violating the social taboo that forbids honest discussion of investing, the whole national nightmare comes to an end.

There’s nothing to “understand” here, Larry. It’s all simple common sense. You have to look at how much you are paying for stocks before you buy them. That’s a revelation? I don’t think so. It comes across as a shocking news development only because for so long now we have as a people been unwilling to talk about the common-sense realities. I don’t see how we are going to change things until we change that reality.

Say that you get 100 pension people to agree with you. What are they going to do about it? To do any good, they are going to need to talk about the realities, are they not? If they do that, sooner or later those who believe in Buy-and-Hold are going to find out and become upset. It leads to the same place sooner or later, does it not?

The problem here is not that I say that we should be permitted to talk honestly about investing on the internet. In ordinary circumstances, that one would be considered so obviously true that it would be silly for me to bring it up. The problem here is that investors who believe in Buy-and-Hold become upset when the realities are mentioned.

That’s a real problem. I don’t make light of it. I say that we cannot solve that problem unless we first start TALKING about it. It’s a very real, very serious, very troubling problem. It is the problem that causes all the other problems. We should get it out on the table and discuss it and try to solve it. That’s my belief, in any event.

I DO post where I can and then let it go. What choice do I have in any event? You say “move on to people who will listen.” There are LOTS of people at all the Retire Early and Indexing boards who have expressed a desire to listen (and to share their own thoughts, to be sure). Again, there’s an article at the “Banned at Motley Fool!” section of the site where I quote 101 of them. That’s only a small sample.

There has never been any problem getting people interested in hearing about the ideas. There’s been huge interest since the first day. The problem has always been that the group that doesn’t want people to be able to listen is 50 times more intense than the group that wants to be able to listen. The group that doesn’t want people to be able to listen knows what is at stake if the discussions are permitted. My sense is that the group that wants to be able to listen does not appreciate how big this is.

But there are many, many people on all the boards and blogs who very much want to be able to listen. This has been clear as clear can be going back to the first day. I think that, if you asked “how many support the idea of honest posting?” you would have 80 percent saying “yes.” The trouble has been that most find the abusive posting a huge turn-off.

I think that if we dealt with the abusive posting, all the other problems would just go away. (I certainly do not mean to suggest here that everyone would agree that Valuation-Informed Indexing is the way to go. That’s a very, very different question. I am just saying that most are open to the idea of having both sides state their sincere views so long as abusive posting does not enter the picture.)

Jesus did not hold back from saying what He felt needed to be said out of fear that some would become angry on hearing it, did He? He put forward some Hard Sayings. And He certainly did not limit Himself to speaking only to those who were in 100 percent agreement with him from the start. He spoke to sinners. Well, the Buy-and-Hold Investors are the sinners of InvestoWorld. We need to talk to them. Talking is caring. I view it as the easy way out to say “Oh, well, I will only talk to those who praise me from the first time they hear me.”

I CARE about the sinners, Larry. Because I am a sinner. I believed in Buy-and-Hold Investing once upon a time. I have an inner Goon. I do dumb stuff. I fall for marketing slogans.

And I LEARN from the sinners. All the time. I have learned from talking with Schroeder. And from talking with Drip Guy. And from talking with Norbert Schenkler. These are three of the most abusive Goons in the history of our boards. And I have learned important things from talking things over with them. I need to filter out the hate stuff to be able to make any sense of what they say. But there is sometimes sense buried there that can be found if you look for it.

The Goons do not want to destroy their lives. They do not want to delay their retirements. On some level they do not want to be Goons. They want to be humans. In that sense they are like me. Or like you.

We all have Goonishness within us, Larry. That’s a big part of the story being revealed here. The Sharpe Ratio doesn’t measure the Goonishness in the air at any given point in time. That’s why the Sharpe Ratio causes us to get all the numbers wrong. Goonishness enters the picture once we bring humans into the story and let them be the ones buying the stocks.

Eugene Fama doesn’t feel comfortable talking about human emotions. That’s why he spends so much time walking through blind alleys. The part of investing that has been ignored for years now is the human part. It’s re that part of the story that I have something worthwhile to offer. When you bring humans into the story, you bring Goonishness into the story. That’s just the way it goes. God lets Goonishness continue. It was His call to make this part of the story, not mine (I am just a mild-mannered reporter who writes up what he sees appear before his eyes, nothing more and nothing less).

My view is that these things need to be said. My goal is to have a world where EVERYONE shares his or her honest views. The very fact that that this is today considered by some an impossible dream tells me that there is something very, very wrong with the current set-up. I view honesty as Job #1. Without honesty, I feel that all the words that follow are empty words. Humans can never achieve absolute honesty. But we should TRY. That’s all that I do. I TRY to post honestly.

One thing that I do that is different from some others is that, when I feel inclined to pull back and not post my honest beliefs because of intimidation tactics, I make an effort to work up the courage to post my honest beliefs DESPITE the intimidation. I think that’s the answer. I think that we all need to try to OVERCOME this social taboo that has stopped us from writing and thinking honestly re these questions for many years now. We often learn by saying things out loud.

When we don’t SAY what we believe, it becomes hard to think clearly. I have found over and over again that, when I work up the courage to say something that for a long time I had been afraid to say, it causes me to discover a powerful new insight. I have had that happen scores of time. I believe that all the great ideas are stored in our heads waiting to get out when we work up the courage to give voice to them. I see it as my job to work up the courage to do this as often as possible.

One of the things that is holding us back (I believe) is shame. We are ashamed of what we have done for 28 years now, of all the human misery we have caused by failing to speak out for so long. I think that’s the source of the pain and the anger and the hate. I take no pleasure in causing people to feel shame. My view is that feeling this emotion (which we earned with our behavior over the past 28 years) is the only way out of experiencing more and more and more of it over time. The shame is not going to go away because we ignore it. It’s going to get worse. If we cause the second great depression, there will be MORE shame than there is today. I want to do what I can to prevent that. That’s why I try to tell the story as straight as possible.

I feel that you (and many other smart and good people) want to compartmentalize things. I feel that you want to turn this into a math problem. I do not see this as a math problem. All of the intellectual puzzles were solved decades ago. What has been lacking for 28 years is the willingness to speak up about what we already know intellectually. It’s not enough to understand this stuff. We need to be willing to SHARE what we understand. We need to be willing to put what we understand into words. In today’s world (a world influenced by hundreds of millions of dollars that have been directed to the promotion of Buy-and-Hold Investing), sharing what we know about the realities is going to cause a good number of people a good bit of distress. That’s just the way it is.

We need to respond to that distress with love. The question is — Is the loving thing to pretend that the distress is not there or to take steps to alleviate the distress? I believe that we need to face and overcome the distress. I believe that when that job is done all the rest just follows as easy as eating a piece of apple pie. Knowing about this stuff is a win/win/win/win/win for everyone concerned. In a rational world, there is no possible grounds for opposition. Spreading knowledge of the realities of stock investing is a 100 percent good thing, with no possible downside for anyone concerned.

There was a time when it was not viewed as polite to talk about the evils of slavery. We ended up in war over that one. When people fail to speak up about obvious evils, those evils retain the power to do harm to people. The idea that it is not necessary to take price into consideration when buying stocks is an evil idea. It is rooted in a dark part of human nature, the Get Rich Quick impulse. If we speak up in opposition to this evil, it will lose its power over us; it will be destroyed. This is why I speak plainly. I care about the people being hurt by the evil idea and I want to bring the evil idea down. I see it as my job to employ all my powers of persuasion to achieve that goal.

Again, I am grateful for your concern and for your caring and for your willingness to help. I am happy to interact with you according to whatever terms you specify. If you don’t ask about this aspect of the story, I am happy not to bring it up. If you do ask, I feel an obligation to explain my take as well as I can. I certainly don’t make any demands that you agree. I cannot not believe what I believe so strongly. So I just have to hope that that will be good enough.

Rob

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: get rich quick, goons, internet harassment

“Find Supporters and Don’t Focus So Much on the Detractors”

September 8, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that Larry sent to me on November 12, 2009.

Rob,

I don’t know your full story so I have no right to judge. My intention is to help you where I can because I think you are really on to something with valuation informed investing.

However, I was thinking about your e-mail today. I remembered the story about Jesus telling his apostles to dust their feet off and move on to the next town because no one was listening. I guess that’s what I was trying to say about the goons and others that will never come around. Dust your feet off and move on to people that will listen.

I’m going to be really transparent. I’m with your brother, wife, and friends on this one. Maybe you should listen a little closer to their hearts. That’s why God places people like them in your life.

I don’t think your battle is to “open the Internet to honest investing posting”. You can’t control that. I think your real battle is educating people about valuation informed investing. Find supporters and don’t focus so much on the detractors. When you are in a battle, you need allies. Focus on finding allies that will carry your message. That’s how battles are won. You will beat the goons by finding more allies and changing your battle strategy.

My other suggestion is to post where you can and let it go. Again, I use Jesus as an example. He did not force his message on anyone. Go to the people that will listen and are open to the truth.

God Bless,

Larry

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: internet harassment

“The Ideas Were All Developed Through INTERACTION With My Fellow Community Members”

September 7, 2010 by Rob

Larry:

Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Larry on November 12, 2009.

Thanks for the kind “beyond awesome” assessment. I fully get it that you are trying to bring the positive aspects to the next level. I am of course grateful.

I feel that I need to respond to the point about spending time and energy battling old foes. I hope that you will not take my feeling a need to respond as defensiveness.

The first thing that I need to say is that you are not the only person whom I respect who has said things along these lines. My wife has said things along these lines. John never said it in words but my strong sense is that he would have agreed with you. My brother has said things along these lines. There are others. So there is evidence that I may just have a blind spot here and cannot see something that is obvious to many others.

Still, I believe what I believe re this aspect of things and I think I should make an effort to put what I believe into words so that you are at least clear about where it is that I am coming from according to my perspective.

I feel that any old “foes” (I don’t personally think of the Goons as “foes” although it certainly is fair to say that they view me as constituting some sort of “foe”) have a right to invest however they please. This has never been even a tiny concern to me.

My “battle” is to open the internet to honest posting on investment questions. Not one of the ideas explored at my site was developed by me sitting in a room thinking grand thoughts. They were all developed through INTERACTION with my fellow community members. The process that works is much like the one that you and I are going through in these e-mails. Different thoughts come from different angles and over time people develop better-informed takes as a result.

Hundreds of the people on the boards are friends of mine. I think they have a right to have the discussions that they want to have. And many of these people have things to teach me. I think I have a right to bounce ideas off them and learn from them. The purpose of the “battle” is to make that possible.

I do not care what Greaney thinks about investing any more than I care what anyone else thinks. I had some good times with  the guy. I think of him as a friend because of those good times. But I couldn’t possibly care less how he goes about investing his money. I see that as being his call. The one way in which he has become a concern to me is that he and his Goon Squad stand in the way of a number of boards and blogs permitting honest posting on these questions. I think he should be banned from the boards until he is willing to follow the rules he agreed to follow when he was permitted access. I have been saying so since November 2002. All of the boards that I have posted at prohibit the tactics that he employs to block honest posting.

There’s one more angle here that I believe that you need to consider to develop a full appreciation of why the Passive model is so dangerous. I noted above that all of the boards prohibit the tactics employed by Greaney and Lindauer. That’s evidence that there is a deep feeling among many people that those tactics are unacceptable. Yet only a small number have spoken out in strong terms in opposition to the tactics that have been employed. Does that not say something about how emotional an approach the Passive investing approach is?

I think it does. I think that all of us know on some level of consciousness that the idea that price doesn’t matter when buying stocks is nonsense. We try to ignore the voice inside telling us this but we can never fully pull it off. So it eats away at us. And it makes us emotional when someone comes along and points out what the historical data really says.

I don’t possess an I.Q. bigger than all these experts. So how did it come to be that I am the one writing and speaking about all these exciting findings? That’s a fair question that I think reasonable people should be asking.

I think that the explanation is just that I haven’t had money in stocks since 1996. So I am not caught up in the Passive Investing craziness. I am capable of a level of objectivity that few alive today are capable of. I think that’s part of the story here.

Several financial planners have told me that the reason why they do not talk straight about stock investing is that most investors are far too emotional to handle the truth. I think that the problem is that the conventional advice MAKES them emotional. So this is all circular. Passive Investing makes us incapable of reason and being incapable of reason makes us unable to appreciate strategies rooted in reason.

We need to break this chain. I don’t think we can break it any final sense by writing some super-duper article that lays out all the points (I of course do not mean to say that producing such articles is not a plus). The human mind possesses an incredible ability to rationalize away points that it does not want to take in. But I have seen people slowly come around when they are able to ask questions and step by step come to a better appreciation of the realities. So I am always looking for places where I can help people through that step-by-step process.

The Goons of course want to block that learning process as much as I want to advance it. So we are working at cross purposes. My view is that I am working for a positive purpose and they are working for a negative purpose. I get the sense that they would like me to feel that I should apologize for doing so. I offer no apologies. I am proud of the work that each of the hundreds of people who have made positive contributions has put forward.

I believe that even the Goons would feel a whole big bunch better about themselves if they would make positive and constructive contributions. I have often urged them to do so. I believe that I have done pretty much all that it is possible for me to do in this regard.

I view this as a positive story and I regret it that many characterize it as a negative story because of the ugliness that the Goons have injected into the proceedings. My view is that we should all work together to insure that things always remain positive. I do what I can in this regard. When I am not able to think of anything more of a positive nature that can be done, I let it go and turn my attention elsewhere. I personally do not see what is wrong with this approach. But, again, you are far from the first person I respect who has indicated to me that I am going about things in the wrong way.

If I have done something wrong, I hope that there will come a day when I can recognize that. Until I really do see it, I don’t think it would be right for me to say that I do. I have to just keep doing what seems right in my eyes while making an effort to remain open to the points made by people of good will seeking to steer me in another direction.

Rob

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: Greaney Goons, internet harassment, SWRs

“Beyond Awesome”

September 6, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on e-mail correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail sent by Larry on November 12, 2009.

Rob,

I see and understand the difference that you talked about in your note. Buffet has said for years that he hopes the academics keep teaching the Efficient Market Theory in business schools. It helps him with his investing approach.

One of my main points in investing is to avoid catastrophic investment loss. The P/E 10 helps with this goal. I’m just trying to articulate additional benefits of your investment approach. You’ve focused heavily on safe withdrawal impacts in your writings. This is great but as you know there are many more benefits to your approach. I want to finish the position paper and chart so you and others can see the entire spectrum of benefits of the valuation informed investing process.

I think what you have done is beyond awesome. However, I think you spend way too much time and energy battling old foes. I’m just trying to help bring  the positive aspects of your work to the next level.

Larry

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: internet harassment, SWRs

“It’s Not Any More Possible to Out-Guess a Lunatic Than It Is to Out-Guess a Genius”

September 5, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Larry on November 12, 2009.

Larry:

I’m certainly going to look closely at your chart. I’m excited about it.

Just to be clear, we are in complete agreement re the negative reaction that is generated by making claims that timing is a good thing. There are many smart and well-intentioned people who respond as you did. And the reason why they respond that way is rooted in something positive.

Most middle-class people are looking for a way to invest that avoids all the nonsense. The word “timing” is evocative of the nonsense (jumping in and out of stocks each time a new development hits the news). People are looking for something real and the word “timing” evokes all that is phony about investing advice and so they respond negatively to it. That’s a good thing so far as it goes because it suggests that people are open to hearing good ideas that make sense and that work in the long run.

I am today convinced that all of the trouble we have seen has its roots in one grand mistake made by the academics back in the 1960. They saw that short-term timing didn’t work and they felt the need to develop a theory to explain that reality. To understand what happened, you have to put yourself in their shoes and realize how counter-intuitive a reality it was.

Through all of history, people had been trying to employ their intelligence to figure out when to buy stocks and when not to do so. It wouldn’t be overstating things too much to say that the entire investing project was viewed as how best to go about timing the market. And now they had research that showed that timing didn’t work! It was a startling finding and one that simply had to be explained.

There are two possible explanations. One is that the market does such a good job of setting prices that it is impossible for anyone, no matter how smart, to do better. The second is that the market does such a poor job of setting prices in the short term that knowledge is no help in figuring out where prices are going in the short term.

It’s not any more possible to out-guess a lunatic than it is to out-guess a genius. For different reasons. The reason why you cannot out-guess a genius is that he is smarter more than you. The reason why you cannot outguess a lunatic is that his choices defy logic and thus his moves cannot be effectively predicted through the use of logic.

The academics GUESSED that the first explanation was the one that applied. The idea that the market is good at setting prices is the Efficient Market Theory. All of today’s conventional investing wisdom follows from this incorrect guess.

What the data shows is that the reason why short-term timing does not work is that the market is so POOR at setting short-term prices. In the short-term, any connection between the market price and true value is pure coincidence. The market is bonkers in the short term. The price can go to three times fair value or to one-half fair value. The market is the OPPOSITE of efficient in the short-term.

Of course the market IS efficient in the long-term. In five years, a little bit. In 10 years, a good bit. In 20 years, almost entirely. There IS an efficient market. But the market is only GRADUALLY efficient, NOT immediately efficient.

That one error caused all of the strategic recommendations that followed from use of the dominant model to be 100 percent the opposite of what works. If the market does a good job of setting prices, you want to put your trust in the market. If the market is nutso re setting price, you want to come to an independent assessment of fair value (through use of a P/E10 adjustment).

That’s it. That’s the entire problem. The academics took a wrong turn early on and they have never since been willing to retrace their steps. So we keep walking into more and more dangerous territory.

My goal is to get that mistake acknowledged and corrected. Once that is done, there is no problem whatsoever. There will be thousands of people generating good research and good analysis and so on. Things will just naturally get better and better and better.

The hurdle is getting that mistake acknowledged. I think people are afraid to admit the mistake because it is the cornerstone of 30 years of work and they fear tearing everything down at this point. But I see no practical alternative means to getting to a good place. Everything that followed from that big mistake (and that’s just about everything that we “know” about investing today) is wrong. We learn by acknowledging mistakes.

I don’t believe that there is a way around acknowledging the mistake.

The reason why I advocate timing is that I want to steer people toward dealing with this aspect of things. I want to develop a consensus that the old model is broken and that an entirely new model is needed. There is only one difference between the two models. The old model says that timing is impossible and the new model says that timing is required. That one change makes an awfully big difference in the ultimate treatment of hundreds of strategic questions (including asset allocation, to be sure).

We are in complete agreement that this is an asset allocation question. I am saying that it is a lot bigger than that.

It is not just our understanding of how to set our allocations that is wrong. Our entire model for understanding how the market works is wrong. The market is the OPPOSITE of efficient. Think what that means.

I’ll give one example of what I am getting at. Bogle says to tune out the short-term noise. Few of Bogle’s followers really manage to do that. You know why? Because Bogle is saying that the market is setting prices properly. That means that the market’s reaction to events really is of significance and can hardly be ignored by those with money in the market.

I am saying the opposite. I am saying that the market price is pure nonsense in the short term; it is meaningless, insignificant. If people came to believe that, it seems to me that people really could come to tune out the short-term noise in a real and practical way.

Do you see the difference?

It is either true that the market is smarter than the smartest investor alive or that the market is dumber than a bag of rocks. It’s got to be one or the other for short-term timing not to work. It makes a huge difference which of these two things is true. The entire historical record says that the market is dumber than a bag of rocks in the short term and BECOMES smart only after the passage of about 10 years.

I don’t care about the semantics. But I am looking to do more than give people tools for setting their stock allocations. I want people to come to understand how the market works. Once we come to agreement on that, there is no limit to where we can take all this. We have to get it right, of course. What I can say after seven years is that thousands of smart people have tried to find holes in the Rational take and not one has yet been able to come up with any reasoned arguments. I think that’s significant and I want to take this to a bigger stage to see if having more know about it would cause anyone to come up with anything.

If no one is ever able to come up with anything, I think it makes sense to accept what the data says is so as being so: The market is the OPPOSITE of efficient in the short term and always in the process of BECOMING efficient (a process that reaches meaningful fruition at about 10 years).

Rob

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: efficient market theory, investing theory

“I Can’t Visualize Large Institutional Investors Telling Their Clients They Are Engaged in Market Timing”

September 4, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on e-mail correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail Larry sent to me on November 12, 2009.

Rob,

Thank you for your note.

I’ll really think through your comment about market timing. My initial reaction to the timing word  was negative when I first went to your site. Timing is cast in such a negative light by the press and reinforced by most planners. The asset allocation words are hailed by most people as the best process  for overall investment return. I can’t visualize large institutional investors telling their clients that they are engaged in market timing. I can visualize them saying that they are using new asset allocation tools to reduce risk. The entire  industry is looking for ways to reduce risk right now.

The target audience for this tool really is the middle class (non accredited investors). My comments regarding Hedge Funds were more for discussion purposes. I know Hedge Fund managers really look at valuations to determine the perceived best asset class at the moment.

Please take a look at my Index Fund Movement chart and description of the P/E 10 when I send it to you. I will be curious if you change your view about the timing issue after you review the information. I’m working on this very part time so it is still going to be at least a  few weeks before I have a decent draft.

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: market timing, timing doesn't work, timing works

“The Biggest Mental Block We Face Is the Idea That ‘Timing Doesn’t Work.’ “

September 3, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have set forth the texts of e-mails between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that I sent to Larry on November 11, 2009.

Larry:

Thanks for the update.

I share your thinking on both aspects of the Hedge Fund question. Yes, there is a better understanding of the valuations topic among those who promote hedge funds (Easterling and John Mauldin are active here). But I too am skeptical of hedge funds, especially for the average person.

To me, the key is getting the word out to the typical middle-class investors. It is when the middle class dramatically overinvests in stocks that we see destruction to our economic and political systems. One big frustration that I feel that I come up against again and again is a compartmentalization of concerns.

People who care about economic and political issues tend to tune out investing discussions and people who care about investing tend to tune our economic and political concerns. All these areas overlap in the stock market. When the middle-class loses large portions of their life savings in the market, damage is done to the economy and to public confidence in our political leaders. I see these issues as connected. But I don’t know of too many others who approach these questions in an integrated way.

I am of course glad to hear that you are hearing a positive reaction to the calculator. I have both a positive and a negative reaction to your finding that it helps to promote the calculator as an asset allocation tool. That’s certainly a fair way to describe the calculator, and it is of course a good idea to go with what works.

However, I also believe that it is critical to get out the message that long-term timing works and is essential for long-term investing success. The biggest mental block we face is the idea that “timing doesn’t work.” If it were not for widespread belief in this idea, I don’t think that there ever would have been any objections to any of this. It all makes perfect sense.

But people have a really hard time accepting that timing works. So I can see how it might help to promote the calculator as an asset allocation tool. But I personally believe the message that timing always works is an important one (the other way of saying it is that paying attention to the price you pay for something always works).

I look forward to seeing your chart.

Rob

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: long-term timing, market timing, timing works. timing doesn't work

“The Key Is Explaining That Value-Informed Indexing Is a Tool for Asset Allocation, Not Market Timing”

September 2, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have reported on my correspondence with a community member named “Larry.” Set forth below is the text of an e-mail that Larry sent me on November 4, 2009, and one that he sent me on November 11, 2009.

Rob,

Thanks for the information. I will do whatever I can to help from this point forward. I may even start a site myself and link to your site. My mind is spinning with positive ways to get the word out.

Rob,

I just wanted to check in with you.

I presented the valuation index approach to some friends and influential acquaintances this week and they all think it makes sense. One of the individuals follows Ed Easterling’s writings. I’m also finding that those in the Hedge Fund world have an understanding of valuations and index investing. I’m not sure if that is good or bad thing  since I’m not a big fan of Hedge funds.

However, I think the valuation approach makes a lot of sense to the middle class investor. I’ve been testing the calculator with people in my network. The response is way positive. The key at least for me is explaining that the P/E 10 and valuation informed investing is a  tool for asset allocation not market timing. I have a friend  that significantly reduced their exposure to stocks based on the return calculator as an asset allocation tool.

I also came up with a different way of presenting valuation investing.  I call it “The Index Fund Movement Strategy”, and people seem to get it. When the P/E ratio is high, Stocks generally begin to die. Therefore you reduce your allocation of stock index funds e.g., the S&P 500. When the P/E ratio is low, Stocks generally begin to grow. Therefore, you increase the index fund stock allocation  portion of your portfolio. I am also working on a simple chart that shows this concept graphically and it’s pretty cool.

Have a great week and keep the faith.

Larry

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: asset allocation strategies

“This Is So Big That Our Brains Are Not Capable of Taking It In All At Once”

September 1, 2010 by Rob

Recent blog entries have set forth the texts of e-mail correspondence between a community member named “Larry” and me. Set forth below is one that Larry sent on November 4, 2009, and one that I sent in response that same day.

Rob,

I’m now a 100% believer. I am sure that you have this chart from Ed Easterling but it is awesome and supports your position on valuation investing.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/pdfs/Stock%2020%20Yr%20Returns.pdf

I came across this on another site. I think I may be matching your passion on this subject!

Larry:

That’s good news.

Yes, Ed Easterling puts out fine stuff. He came out very hard on the errors in the Old School SWR studies in an article at his site, saying that many people will be spending their declining years working as greeters in WalMart because of the demonstrably false retirement-planning claims.

Several years back, John Russell and I invited Ed to a special event at the SWR Research Group board at which he fielded questions from us in real time for about an hour or so. He had agreed to field questions from the entire community at the NoFeeBoards.com site, but the Goon element there insisted that the discussion be banned (John and I ignored the ban and were later removed from the site because we continued to post honestly).

I link to Ed’ s site in an article that I am announcing at my blog tomorrow. The article links to 20 studies showing that valuations affect long-term returns. I have not cleaned it up yet (there may some typos and I have not double-checked that all the links are in working order). But you might want to take a look at some of the research that is rarely played up by The Stock-Selling Industry:

http://www.passionsaving.com/buy-and-hold-is-dead-part-one.html

http://www.passionsaving.com/buy-and-hold-is-dead-part-two.html

What I believe you will find in coming days is that more and more implications of the reality that valuations affect long-term returns will hit you. The implications reach in a hundred directions.  This is so big that our brains are not capable of taking it in all at once. I’ve been thinking about this stuff 24/7 for over seven years now and I still learn something new almost every day. I have recorded 184 podcasts of over an hour each exploring the implications and I have a list of over 100 more than I will record in coming days if time becomes available.

An important issue that comes up over and over again in this debate relates to how it is that human learn about a subject of interest. We are NOT logic machines. We do not learn solely by processing evidence. We have filters that “protect” us from information bits that “do not compute” according to our accepted paradigm. Learning is a gradual process. We take one idea in and acceptance of that one leads to another and acceptance of that one leads to yet another. It takes a lot of these small changes to bring about a paradigm shift in our thinking.

This is why I feel so strongly that we need to have a place on the internet where people interested in investing can congregate and post honestly. People are not going to come around to these ideas unless they are permitted to ask questions and bit by bit come to a new understanding. We have found thousands of people who are interested in doing so. The rub has been that there is a much smaller number that is determined to block the learning process and this group is about 50 times as intense as the group that favors the idea of allowing the learning process to mover forward.

Once we get to a point where honest posting is permitted, I believe that Passive Investing is finished. There is not one person alive who benefits from it (this includes The Stock-Selling Industry, in my assessment). It will all fall down once it can be questioned effectively. So my belief is that the key is figuring out a way that questions may be raised as part of reasoned and civil discussions.

Rob

Filed Under: Larry Evans and VII Tagged With: how we learn, Investor Psychology

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  • Warren Buffett & VII (5)

Rob on the Internet

  • Rob's Weekly Valuation-Informed Indexing Column at the Value Walk Site.

  • Rob's Weekly Beyond Buy-and-Hold Column at the Out of Your Rut Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Financial Highway Site

  • Rob's Articles at the Balance Junkie Site

  • Rob's Daily Caller Articles: (1) Can We Handle the Truth About Stock Investing?; (2) How We Invest Is a Political Question; (3) The Economic Crisis Is Trying to Tell Us Something (and We're Not Listening); (4) Facts Don't Matter; (5) Going Google Stupid; (6) How Much Transparency Can We Handle?; (7) Confessions of an Internet Troll; (8) Conservatives Fall Into a Trap by Blaming Obama for the Bad Economy; (9) Meet the New Media, Same as the Old Media; and (10) How Restoring Honor Will End the Economic Crisis

  • Humble Money Experts Are the Best Money Experts, (Rob's Article in the Integrative Advisor, the Journal of the Association for Integrative Financial and Life Planning)

  • Articles on the Return Predictor, the RIsk Evaluator, the Scenario Surfer and the Strategy Tester

  • The Myth of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Good Side of Stocks' Lost Decade and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • A Better and Safer Way to Invest in Stocks and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Economic Crisis Is the Best Thing That Ever Happened to Us and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Bankers Did Not Do This to Us! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Stock Volatility Kills! and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Risks of Buy-and-Hold and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • The Future of Investing and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What the Stock Investing Experts Don't Want You to Know and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • What's the Best Age at Which to Experience a Stock Crash? and Seven Other Guest Blog Entries

  • Guest Blog Entry Compares Our Effort to Open the Internet to Honest Posting on Stock Investing with the Civil Rights Struggle of the Early 1960s

  • Our Monster Thread (153 Comments!) on Whether Bill Bengen Should Correct His Retirement Study Now That He Acknowledges the Errors He Made In It

  • Google Search Results for the Term "Valuation-Informed Indexing"
  • Favorite RobCasts

    • Bogle and Valuations

    • When Stock Losses Are True Losses and When They Are Not

    • There Is No Free Lunch! Or Is There?

    • Risk Tolerance in the Real World

    • Cash Is a Strategic Asset Class

    • Nine Valuation-Informed-Indexing Portfolio Allocation Strategies

    • Why the Stock Market Does Not Set Prices Properly (Even Though Other Markets Do)

    • Only Valuations Matter -- Everything Else Is Priced In

    • Low Stock Prices Are Better Than High Stock Prices

    • 30 Investment Myths in 60 Minutes

    Links That Matter

    • Ten Bogus Investing Truths

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Long-Term Timing Provides Higher Returns at Reduced Risk

    • Study by Associate Professor Wade Pfau Showing That Valuation-Informed Indexing Beat Buy-and-Hold in 102 of 110 Rolling 30-Year Time-Periods in the Historical Record

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That the Idea That Long-Term Market Timing Does Not Work Is a "Myth" of Stock Investing "That Will Not Die" Because "This Hoary Old Chestnut Keeps Clients Fully Invested" Even When It Is Contrary to Their Best Interests

    • Wall Street Journal Article Pointing Out That" "This Ratio (P/E10) Has Been a Powerful Predictor of Long-Term Returns" and That "Valuation Is By Far the Most Important Issue for Investors"

    • The Internet Blowhard's Favorite Phrase: Why Do People Love to Say That Correlation Does Not Imply Causation?

    • Michael Kitces (One of the Bravest of the Good Guys in This Field) Asks: "Who's Really at Risk When Avoiding Overvalued Stocks?"

    • Financial Mentor Article Reporting on How Our Knowledge of How to Calculate Safe Withdrawal Rates Has Grown During the First Nine Years of The Great Safe Withdrawal Rate Debate

    • Does the Trend Matter?

    • Improving RIsk-Adjusted Returns Using Market-Valuation-Based Tactical Asset Allocation Strategies

    • A Value Restoration Project Blog Post That Sums Up in Three Paragraphs All You Need to Know to Become a Highly Effective Investor

    • Year 20 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Year 10 Annualized, Real, Total Return v. P/E10

    • Valuation-Informed Indexing Always Superior to Buy-and-Hold Over 10-Year Periods

    • The Valuation-Informed Indexing Advantage

    • What P/E10 Predicted vs. What Actually Happened

    • Normal and Valuation-Adjusted Wealth Accumulation

    • Valuation-Informed Indexers Can Retire Five Years Sooner

    • Following Valuation-Informed Indexing Strategies Reduces Stock Investing Risk by 80 Percent

    • S&P 500 Tracked by P/E10 Level

    • Treasury Inflation-Protected Income Securities (TIPS) Table

    • Best, Average and Worst Returns Since 1871

    • Compound Annual Growth Rate Calculator

    • Investing Through Time

    • Mapping S&P 500 Performance

    • S&P 500 at Your Fingertips

    • S&P 500 Return Calculator

    • Russell's Research

    • Shiller's Data

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate Research Group

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