Set forth below is the text of a comment that I recently posted to the discussion thread for another blog entry at this site:
Hey Rob. Here is your chance. According to this link on Bogleheads, Jack Bogle looks at the letters that are sent to him. Perhaps you can write him a letter and send it to him. You can then post the letter and response here:
https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=203980&sid=3d5ca916ec62bc7ba172d38949fbb871
Bogle is working a con, Anonymous. Con men rarely turn themselves in.
I wrote to Bogle years ago. As you know. And a good number of others at the Bogleheads Forum wrote to him at that time. When he says that he responds to letters, he is telling a lie. He responds to letters that do not expose his con. He ignores those that ask him why he lies about what the last 35 years of peer-reviewed research tell us about how valuations affect long-term returns.
I don’t believe that Bogle started out as a con man. I believe that he was sincere in believing that the market is efficient in his early days. Perhaps you are cynical enough to believe that he was a con man going back to the first day. Your tone suggests that. I don’t believe that. I believe that he made a mistake and that he fell victim to cognitive dissonance when his mistake was discovered by the publication of Robert Shiller’s “revolutionary” (Shiller’s word) research findings in 1981. Then, as the number of people whose lives have been destroyed by the relentless promotion of the Buy-and-Hold lies grew larger and larger, Bogle felt that he had no choice but to engage in a cover-up to keep people from discussing openly how things really work in the stock market. At some point, he became desperate enough to associate with the sorts of individuals who have put up posts in “defense” of Mel Linduaer and John Greaney. And here we are.
I love the man. I am grateful for the hundreds of powerful insights that he developed that have helped us all to develop a stronger understanding of how stock investing works. There would be no Valuation-Informed Indexing today were it not for the fine work that Bogle put forward a good number of years back. In fact, it was by reading Bogle’s book that I learned about the errors in the Buy-and-Hold retirements studies that I posted about in my famous post of the morning of May 13, 2002.
I will continue posting honestly on safe withdrawal rates and on scores of other critically important investment-related topics. I will continue to praise my friend Jack Bogle to the skies re every subject except where it would constitute financial fraud to pretend not to know about the mistake he made and has covered up for so long that has put millions of middle-class Americans at grave risk of suffering failed retirements. I am 100 percent confident that things will work out for the best following the next price crash. This is exciting stuff. The good news here is 50 times more good than the bad news here is bad.
I naturally wish you all the best that this life has to offer a person, my good friend.
Rob
laugh says
It is far more likely that he does not respond to aggressive and unhinged letters.
Rob says
An e-mail that points out that the Buy-and-Hold retirement studies do not contain a valuations adjustment and that there is 35 years of peer-reviewed research showing that a valuations adjustment is required is not aggressive and unhinged, Laugh. An e-mail like that demands a response from an individual who is widely known as the lead promoter of the Buy-and-Hold strategy. If the tables were turned, I would not let 24 hours pass without responding to that e-mail.
My sincere take.
Rob
laugh says
Except you probably put a bunch of content in your letter which would lead any reasonable person to assume you have mental issues.
Rob says
The texts of the e-mails that I wrote to Bogle are available as earlier blog entries at this site. Anyone who cares to look at them to find out for herself or himself what they contain may do so either now or in the days following the next price crash.
I don’t have precise recall of what I wrote in those particular e-mails. But all of the blog entries here give the general idea. There has never been even a sliver of peer-reviewed research supporting the core Buy-and-Hold claim that it is not necessary to practice price discipline when buying stocks.It is widely believed that there IS such research. The Buy-and-Holders have made claims that there is such research thousands and thousands of times. They believe that the claims are true. They believe because they know about the research that shows that short-term timing does not work. They fail to distinguish short-term timing from long-term timing (price discipline). So the core reality here is that the Buy-and-Holders have on thousands and thousands of occasions made demonstrably false claims that they themselves believe. These demonstrably false claims have put the retirements of millions of people at great risk. These demonstrably false claims caused the economic crisis that began in 2008.
Does that paragraph reveal me as someone with mental issues? It’s an incredible reality that I describe, Laugh. But everything I say in that paragraph is a reality documented at this site. I need to persuade Bogle to help us to bring the ugly side of this to an end and I cannot bring on all the positive stuff that follows from us opening the internet to honest posting on safe withdrawal rates and scores of other critically important investment-related topics without persuading Bogle. So I tell him the realities when I write to him, whether those realities happen to be incredible or not.
There’s no other way to get the job done, Laugh. So I am going to continue to play it the way that I have played it. If he wants to tell people who ask following the next price crash that the reason why he did not respond to my e-mails is that he thought that I had “mental issues,” I guess that that is what he will say. I would not feel comfortable going with that one. I do not advise my good friend Jack to go with that one. But Jack gets to decide for Jack. It’s not my call. M y job is just to report accurately and fairly what happened.
I won’t say that John Greaney included an adjustment for valuations in his retirement study. To do so would be financial fraud, a felony under the laws of the United States. I will not say that there is not 35 years of peer-reviewed research showing that valuations affect long-term returns. Again, to do would be financial fraud under the laws of the United. States. Anything that I can do to help my Buy-and-Hold friends I am happy to do. But I obviously cannot commit felonies. That one is so far over the line that I cannot even give it two seconds of consideration.
I love Jack Bogle. I even feel a measure of fondness for the members of his various Goon Squads. But I don’t commit felonies. Not once. Not ever. Not in 15 years. Not in 15 billion years. Not this boy. No way, no how. It doesn’t happen.
I naturally wish you all good things, Goon friend.
Rob